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Beyond all the nonsense, that fatal flaw in all of this long-term planning is the simple fact that you can t predict the future. History is filled with bold forecasts that didn t pan out. Here s a sampling of predictions that flopped:
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Airplanes are interesting but of no military value. Marshal Ferdinand Foch, French military strategist, 1911. The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad. President of Michigan Savings Bank, 1903, advising Henry Ford s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co. What use could this company make of an electrical toy Western Union president William Orton, rejecting Alexander Graham Bell s offer to sell his struggling telephone company to Western Union for $100,000. Who the hell wants to hear actors talk Harry Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927. We don t like their sound. Groups of guitars are on the way out. Decca Records s statement on rejecting the Beatles, 1962. There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home. Kenneth Olsen, founder and president of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977. So if you can t plan long term or predict the future, what do you do You have to stay flexible and seize the opportunity.
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REpositioning
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The Nuclear Energy Crisis
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Let s look at the current nuclear energy business as an example of how to handle what has become a macro crisis in the U.S. market for this source of energy. It all began in the 1960s. General Electric introduced what was the first of the nuclear power plants at Dresden, which was near Chicago. At the time, this was perceived as being the first of a new generation of power plants that was going to be a big deal. To support this effort, GE launched a big consumer educational program entitled Citizen Atom. It laid out all the wonderful things that atomic power was going to accomplish. But crisis struck first through a movie staring Jane Fonda; then, 12 days after the film s release, at Three Mile Island; and eventually at Chernobyl. Suddenly America was afraid of nuclear power, and many people even had the misguided sense that a nuclear power plant could blow up. When you added that fear to the cost of these plants, the market suddenly dried up along with all those grand plans. It was a full-blown crisis.
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But that was then. Today there is a lot of talk about alternative energy not based on hydrocarbons. Climate
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change, Arab oil, and the like have suddenly put nuclear power back in play. Now is the time to aggressively seize the opportunity to reposition nuclear energy as an alternative fuel of the future. Whether this should be a company or an industry program will have to be determined. In our view, it will have to be a major industry program in order to have enough size and weight behind it. And, in addition to making an effort with consumers, a major effort with Washington will be needed as well. Industry programs are always hard to mobilize, so that has to be the first effort. But now comes the critical decision. How do we get around the fear that these plants can still be dangerous This calls for some careful repositioning.
Forget the Past
In a rapidly changing world, clinging to the past can be fatal. So it is with the nuclear power industry. To get around the fears out there, the industry has to be willing to shed the word that is at the heart of this fear: nuclear. Back when the terms atomic and nuclear were born, no one ever envisioned them as being anchors that could drag down the industry. In a repositioning program, these words should be dropped and the industry renamed, as minds will never be changed about the word nuclear. The press is alive
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