DEFINITION OF RISK in Software

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1.3 DEFINITION OF RISK
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For the purposes of this discussion, risk is defined as a condition in which there exists an exposure to adversity. In addition, there is an expectation of what the outcome should look like. Therefore, risk is defined here as follows:
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risk A condition in which there exists a possibility of deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for.
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Other definitions include the restriction that risk is based on realworld events, including a combination of circumstances in the external environment. We do not agree with this limitation. Potential risks that might occur in the future are excluded. In addition, we do not limit the range of risk to circumstances in the external environment. Many crises in the economy and the financial services industry happen because of problems within organizations. These often have to do with problems in the human resource area, which belong in the realm of the behavioral sciences. The term risk is linked to the possibility of deviation. This means that the possibility of risk can be expressed as a probability, ranging from 0 to 100 percent. Therefore, the probability is neither impossible nor definite. This definition does not require that the probability be quantified, only that it must exist. The degree of risk may not be measurable, for whatever reason, but the probability of the adverse outcome must be between 0 and 100 percent. Another key element of the definition is the deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for. The definition does not say how such an undesirable deviation is defined. There are many ways of building expectations. By projecting historical data into the future, we build expectations. This pattern of behavior can be observed in our everyday lives. Another way of building expectations is to forecast by using information directed toward the future, not by looking back. The definition of expectations is absolutely key in the concept of risk, as it is used to define the benchmark. Any misconception of the expectations will distort the measurement of risk substantially. This issue is discussed in full in the auditing and consulting literature, which analyzes the problem of risk and control in great depth.3 Many definitions of risk include the term adverse deviation to express the negative dimension of the expected or hoped-for outcome. We do not agree with this limitation, which implies that risk exists only with adverse deviations, which must be negative and thus are linked to losses. Such a restriction would implicitly exclude any positive connotations from the concept of risk. We believe that risk has two sides, which both have to be included in the definition, and that risk itself has no dimension, negative or positive.
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1.4 RELATED TERMS AND DIFFERENTIATION
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Frequently, terms such as peril, hazard, danger, and jeopardy are used interchangeably with each other and with the term risk. But to be more precise about risk, it is useful to distinguish these terms:
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Risk Management: A Maturing Discipline
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Peril. A peril creates the potential for loss. Perils include floods, fire, hail, and so forth. Peril is a common term to define a danger resulting from a natural phenomenon. Each of the events mentioned is a potential cause of loss. Hazard. A hazard is a condition that may create or increase the chance of a loss arising from a given peril. It is possible for something to be both a peril and a hazard at the same time. For instance, a damaged brake rotor on a car is a peril that causes an economic loss (the brake has to be repaired, causing financial loss). It is also a hazard that increases the likelihood of loss from the peril of a car accident that causes premature death.
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Hazards can be classified into the following four main categories:
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Physical hazard. This type of hazard involves the physical properties that influence the chances of loss from various perils. Moral hazard. This type of hazard involves the character of persons involved in the situation, which might increase the likelihood of a loss. One example of a moral hazard is the dishonest behavior of a person who commits fraud by intentionally damaging property in order to collect an insurance payment. This dishonest behavior results in a loss to the insurance company. Morale hazard. This type of hazard involves a careless attitude toward the occurrence of losses. An insured person or organization, knowing that the insurance company will bear the brunt of any loss, may exercise less care than if forced to bear any loss alone, and may thereby cause a condition of morale hazard, resulting in a loss to the insurance company. This hazard should not be confused with moral hazard, as it requires neither intentional behavior nor criminal tendencies. Legal hazard. This type of hazard involves an increase in the severity and frequency of losses (legal costs, compensation payments, etc.) that arises from regulatory and legal requirements enacted by legislatures and self-regulating bodies and interpreted and enforced by the courts. Legal hazards flourish in jurisdictions in which legal doctrines favor a plaintiff, because this represents a hazard to persons or organizations that may be sued. The American and European systems of jurisprudence are quite different. In the American system, it is much easier to go to court, and producers of goods and services thus face an almost unlimited legal exposure to potential lawsuits. The European courts have placed higher hurdles in the path of those who might take legal action against another party. In addition, commonsense standards of what is actionable are different in Europe and the United States.
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For a risk manager, the legal and criminal hazards are especially important. Legal and regulatory hazards arise out of statutes and court decisions. The hazard varies from one jurisdiction to another, which means global companies must watch legal and regulatory developments carefully.
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