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Growth through Population and Capital Accumulation
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An increase in the labor supply, ceteris paribus, expands potential output. The law of diminishing returns shows that the incremental output from an additional labor input decreases when other economic resources and technology are unchanged. Thus, the possibility exists that aggregate output could increase while output per capita decreases. Expecting rapid population growth, economists in the early nineteenth century predicted such growth would result in declining output per capita. Thomas Malthus, in particular, held that the population would increase at such a rapid rate that the economy would increasingly be unable to grow enough food to feed its population; eventually output per capita would fall to a subsistence level. While technology has allowed highly industrialized countries to avoid these gloomy projections, rapid population growth is a problem for many developing countries.
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Such theories as that of Thomas Malthus have helped to label economics as the dismal science.
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The neoclassical model of economic growth maintains that, in the absence of technological change, an economy reaches a steady state where there are no further increases in output per capita. In the steady state, capital deepening ceases, although capital widening can occur because of growth in the labor supply. Capital widening exists when capital is added to keep the ratio of capital per worker constant due to increases in the supply of labor. Capital deepening occurs when there is an increase in the ratio of capital to labor. With no technological advance, capital additions that are capital
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CHAPTER 9: Economic Growth and Productivity
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widening do not change output per worker; however, capital additions that are capital deepening increase output per worker. When there is no change in the labor force, capital additions result in diminishing returns and have decreased rates of return. Capital additions cease and the economy reaches a steady state when the rate of return from capital additions equals the economy s real rate of interest. Since there is a limit to capital deepening when there is no change in technology, there must also be a limit to output per worker and therefore to the economy s standard of living. An economy s steady-state position can be pushed to a higher level of output per worker by an increase in its rate of saving, by improved technology, and/or by better education of its population. Productivity is measured by dividing real GDP by the total number of hours worked by labor. Over time, the growth of labor productivity in the U.S. has slowed. Economists have been unable to empirically establish the cause of this productivity growth slowdown, but some potential factors may be: (1) an increase in environmental regulations; (2) high energy costs, resulting in the substitution of more labor and capital for energy; and (3) an increase in the number of less skilled workers in the labor force. A productivity growth slowdown has implications for a country s standard of living. Standard of living is measured by an economy s real GDP per capita (total output divided by population), whereas productivity is measured as real GDP per hour of labor input (output divided by the number of hours worked to produce this output). Suppose an economy s labor force is always 50 percent of its population. Increases in labor s output per hour will result in higher GDP per capita and therefore raise the economy s standard of living. When output per hour is unchanged, there will be no increase in output per capita and therefore no improvement in the economy s standard of living.
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Increased productivity has been the major source of growth for many countries during certain periods, including the U.S.
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84 PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS
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Supply-Side Economics
Concern about the slowdown in U.S. productivity growth during the 1970s helped popularize the theory of supply-side economics. Supplysiders stressed that U.S. productivity would be enhanced by actions that promoted incentives to produce. A decrease in private-sector taxes was proposed. Proponents of this theory called for a decrease in corporate income tax rates, which would increase corporate pro ts and therefore business saving. This in turn would encourage business investment and capital accumulation. A reduction in the personal income tax rate would increase the reward from working, which might increase labor productivity. Decreased tax rates on interest income and corporate dividends would increase household saving, which would result in capital deepening. While not identi ed as supply-side economics, various measures were promoted in the 1990s that would also increase the economy s ability to produce. Improvement of the U.S. educational system would enhance labor skills, increase labor productivity, and thereby promote economic growth.
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