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Software Cost Estimation
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The task of software cost estimation is to determine how many resources are needed to complete the project. Usually this estimate is in programmer-months (PM). There are two very di erent approaches to cost estimation. The older approach is called LOC estimation, since it is based on initially estimating the number of lines of code that will need to be developed for the project. The newer approach is based on counting function points in the project description.
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ESTIMATION OF LINES OF CODE (LOC)
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The rst step in LOC-based estimation is to estimate the number of lines of code in the nished project. This can be done based on experience, size of previous pro-
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CHAPTER 4 Software Project Planning
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jects, size of a competitor s solution, or by breaking down the project into smaller pieces and then estimating the size of each of the smaller pieces. A standard approach is, for each piecei, to estimate the maximum possible size, maxi, the minimum possible size, mini, and the best guess size, besti. The estimate for the whole project is 1/6 of the sum of the maximums, the minimums, and 4 times the best guess: Standard deviation of S sd 2 sd 2 . . . sd 2 1=2 Standard deviation of E i max min =6
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Team WRT had identified seven subpieces to their project. These are shown in Table 4-4 with their estimates of the size of each subpiece. Table 4-4 Part 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Subpiece Size Estimate (in LOC) Best Guess 30 15 30 35 20 12 22 Min Size 50 25 45 40 25 14 25
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The estimates for each section are as follows: p1 20 4 30 50 =6 190=6 31:6 p2 10 4 15 25 =6 95=6 15:8 p3 25 4 30 45 =6 190=6 31:6 p4 30 4 35 40 =6 220=6 36:7 p5 15 4 20 25 =6 120=6 20 p6 10 4 12 14 =6 72=6 12 p7 20 4 22 25 =6 133=6 22:17 The estimate for the whole project is the sum of the estimates for each section: Whole 31:6 15:8 31:6 36:7 20 12 22:17 170:07 LOC
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CHAPTER 4 Software Project Planning
The estimate for the standard deviation of the estimate is as follows: Standard deviation 50 20 2 25 10 2 45 25 2 40 30 2 25 15 2 14 10 2 25 20 2 :5 900 225 400 100 100 16 25 :5 1766:5 42:03
LOC-BASED COST ESTIMATION
The basic LOC approach is a formula that matches the historical data. The basic formula has three parameters: Cost KLOC
Alpha, , is the marginal cost per KLOC (thousand lines of code). This is the added cost for an additional thousand lines of code. The parameter beta, , is an exponent that re ects the nonlinearity of the relationship. A value of beta greater than 1 means that the cost per KLOC increases as the size of the project increases. This is a diseconomy of scale. A value of beta less than 1 re ects an economy of scale. Some studies have found betas greater than 1, and other studies have betas less than 1. The parameter gamma,
, re ects the xed cost of doing any project. Studies have found both positive gammas and zero gammas.
EXAMPLE 4.9
Company LMN has recorded the following data from previous projects. Estimate what the parameters for the cost estimation formula should be and how much effort a new project of 30 KLOC should take (see Table 4-5). Table 4-5 Proj. ID 1 2 3 4 5 Historical Data E ort (PM) 120 192 96 24 48
Size (KLOC) 50 80 40 10 20
Analyzing or plotting this data would show a linear relationship between size and effort. The slope of the line is 2.4. This would be alpha, , in the LOC-based cost estimation formula. Since the line is straight (linear relationship), the beta, , is 1. The gamma,
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