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CHAPTER 6 Risk Analysis and Management
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Consider a project that involves trying to develop safety critical software on cuttingedge hardware. List risks and classify each as project, technical, or business and as common to all projects or special to this project.
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Risk Hardware not available Requirements incomplete Use of specialized methodologies Problems achieving required reliability Retention of key people Underestimating required e ort The single potential customer goes bankrupt
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Risk Estimation
Risk estimation involves two tasks in rating a risk. The rst task is estimating the probability of the occurrence of a risk, called the risk probability, and the second task is estimating the cost of the risk event happening, often called the risk impact. Estimating the risk probability will be hard. Known risks are much easier to manage, and they become part of the software process. The new risks that are unique to the current project are those most important to manage. The cost of the risk may be easier to determine from previous experience with project failures.
Risk Exposure
Risk exposure is the expected value of the risk event. This is calculated by multiplying the risk probability by the cost of the risk event.
CHAPTER 6 Risk Analysis and Management
EXAMPLE 6.2
Consider two dice. Consider a rolling a 7 as an undesirable event that would make you lose a pot of $60. Calculate the risk probability and the risk impact of rolling a 7. Calculate the risk exposure. The risk probability is 6 cases out of 36 combinations, or 1/6. The risk impact is $60. The risk exposure is 1/6 times $60, or $10.
6.4.1 RISK DECISION TREE
A technique that can be used to visualize the risks of alternatives is to build a risk decision tree. The top-level branch splits based on the alternatives available. The next split is based on the probabilities of events happening. Each leaf node has the risk exposure for that event. The sum of the risk exposures for all leafs under the top-level split gives the total risk exposure for that choice.
EXAMPLE 6.3
A friend offers to play one of two betting games with you. Game A is that you toss a coin twice. He pays you $10 if you get two heads. You pay him $2 for each tail you toss. Game B is that you also toss a coin twice, but it costs you $2 to play and he pays you $10 if you get two heads. Which game should you play The risk decision tree is shown in Fig. 6-1. Both games total to $0.50. Thus, each time you play, your average gain is 50 cents. No matter which game you choose.
2 head
_ 5 s 0.2
0.25 * $10 = $2.50
1 heads _
Game A
ead _ s 0.2
0.5 * _ $2 = _ $1.00
0.25 * _ $4 = _ $1.00
Game B
2 head
_ 5 s 0.2
0.25 * $10 _ $2 = $2.00
1 heads _
ead _ s 0.2
0.5 * _ $2 = _ $1.00
0.25 * _ $2 = $0.50
Fig. 6-1
CHAPTER 6 Risk Analysis and Management
Risk Mitigation
Risk mitigation is the proactive strategy of trying to nd ways to either decrease the probability of the risk event happening or the impact of it happening. While there are no magic ways to reduce risk, a common approach is to try to resolve risks related to uncertainty early. For example, if there is concern about particular systems that need to be used, investigating those systems early is better. Often, a prototype can be built that would identify problems early.
EXAMPLE 6.4
Consider the risks identified in the risk identification problem. Suggest an approach for either decreasing the probability or decreasing the impact or both. Risk Hardware not available Requirements incomplete Decrease Probability Accelerate dev. of hardware Increase review of requirements Increase sta training, hire experts Design for reliability Decrease Impact Build simulator
Use of specialized methodologies Problems achieving required reliability Retention of key people Underestimating required e ort The single potential customer goes bankrupt
Pay more Hire external estimator
Hire additional personnel Build in slack time, reestimate often Identify other potential clients
Have external evaluation of area
Risk Management Plans
A risk management plan must include an identi er, a description of the risk, an estimate of risk probability, an estimate of risk impact, a list of mitigation strategies, contingency plans, risk triggers (to determine when contingency plans should be activated), and responsible individuals. Additional elds might include current and/or past status of related metrics.
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