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For the Class 4 solution for a converging market project, they would have to invest in
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How does the firm determine which is better from a dollar and cents point of view First, it is important to lay out the economic components in this decision-making process. The planners need to work two different calculations. One is the net present value of the softswitch option and the other is the net present value of the Class 4 option. The elements of the equation are the investment outlay (cost) of P O, which generates a series of future benefits (B O) and costs (C O) for j 0, 1, 2 . . . , N time periods. For the sake of brevity and paucity of year-to-year cost and benefit information, we will assume the
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annual costs and benefits remain unchanged year to year. Accordingly the net present value formula, NPV (BN CN)(P/A, i, N) P, is used.
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These models will compare three different long-distance providers, one small long-distance operator (480 DS0s), a mid-sized long-distance operator (4,032 DS0s), and a major long-distance carrier (36,000 DS0s). For brevity, the number of DS0s studied is per POP (a node on their network) and does not address the service provider s entire network. The pricing of the Class 4 switching solutions is based on testimony before the FCC where small configurations were priced at $500,000 for the basic chassis and $100 per DS0. Large configurations (100,000 DS0s) are priced at $1,000,000 per chassis plus $100 per DS0.14 For the Class 4 switch, the Nortel DMS-250 is used strictly as an example of a Class 4 switch. The pricing of the softswitch solutions was provided by the softswitch vendors and is considered street pricing. The tables (in the following pages) detailing the comparison of acquisition costs list all the factors necessary to complete an installation of the respective switches. The parts contained are the system itself, an estimate of installation costs based on a per diem charge (often $1,500 per day per installer), and sales tax (state and local). Following the acquisition costs (P C0), the operating expenses for the life of the project (N 2 for a period of two years) are detailed. Sources for further costing information are as follows:
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Installation expenses at $1,500/day Nuera Acquisition costs Respective softswitch vendors for softswitch costs Class 4 acquisition costs Dr. Robert Mercer from testimony before the FCC Operating expenses WorldCom and Level3 Labor costs ICG
Interview with Dr. Robert Mercer, Hatfield Consulting, November 1, 2001. Nortel Networks Sales did not respond to repeated inquiries.
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Softswitch Economics
11
Annual operating costs (CN) include rental costs, labor, data circuits, and leasing costs. Real estate refers to the rental costs of locating a seven-foot equipment rack in a collocation space. Both WorldCom and Level3 charge about $1,000 per month per rack in their Denver collocation spaces. Power is included in that charge. Labor is differentiated in that a Class 4 will usually require an engineer where the industry salary is about $85,000 per year. Softswitches can be maintained by a technician, most of whom are compensated at a maximum of $70,000 per year. Maintenance contracts throughout the telecommunications industry are usually ranked into three categories from the least expensive Bronze with the least amount of service (24/7 phone support only) at about 10 percent of the purchase price per year, up to Gold service (on site service with spares in the air ) that hits on 30 percent of the purchase price per year. In between is Silver service that earns 20 percent per year and is a step up in services from Bronze. For this study, 10 percent is used. Data circuit pricing is provided by WorldCom for service in Denver. Opportunity cost of capital (OCC), or i, is set at 7 percent, 10 percent, and 12 percent, as it assumes at the lower end that entrepreneurs cannot achieve much more with a certificate of deposit and at the higher end venture capitalists in the 2001 stock market cannot achieve any greater return on their money. The study sets N, the life of the operation or the operational life of the Class 4 switch and softswitch, at two years. This was arrived at because, given the pace of change in the datacom and telecom industry, the softswitch platforms will be outdated by that time. Also, software versions contained on the Class 4 could very well be out of date in two years as well. Two years will appear to be a short operational life for a telecommunications project, but given the type of technology involved and the pace of change in this industry, two years is appropriate. This may contrast sharply with legacy telecommunications depreciation schedules that run into decades and highlights the seismic change occurring in this industry. The first consideration is that much of the technology contained in both technologies is dependent upon semiconductors. Moore s Law states that computing power (the power of semiconductors) doubles every 18 to 24 months, and the price of that computing power has decreased 54.1 percent each year from 1985 to 1996. At the same time, the Gross Domestic Product deflator has increased by 2.6 percent per year. Communications equipment, in this case both Class 4 and softswitch, is based largely on semiconductors. Hence, Moore s Law applies to both softswitch and Class 4, but more so to softswitch, given its client/server architecture (a newer platform than Class 4 main frame).
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