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It s Always a Bull Market
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n the longest of long runs, of course it s always a bull market. If it weren t, there wouldn t be anyone buying stock. It doesn t matter if you go back five, 10, 20 years, or more. You can look at the Dow Industrials, Standard & Poor s 500 Index, or the Nasdaq Composite. From all these charts, a similar bullish acceleration curve will appear (Figure 6-1). As long as the stock market any stock market remains fair and orderly, with an essentially free trading system and an economy that continues to grow, the market will follow. However, although it s always a long-term bull market, some of the short-term damage can be severe. And it is not always a bull market for every publicly traded company. Sometimes companies that have been leaders in the past lose their ability to compete in an ever-changing marketplace. Other companies are poorly managed, and some never have much of a chance; therefore, selection is important and often difficult, but is the essence of prudent investing. As the renowned Peter Lynch once stated: People should at least spend as much time selecting a stock as they do when buying a new refrigerator. Investing for long-term growth is always less risky than trying to make a fortune in the next couple of weeks. Especially when an investor is just starting out, it is important to choose stocks on the conservative side. Leave the speculation to those who can afford it or have experience
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Always a Bull Market, Dow Industrial Average, 1998 2004
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losing. An approach such as this will save you money and keep you interested in the stock market, which is still the most consistent money-making investment in existence.
Look for Divergence in Trends
he stock market seldom has a normal day. Upon close analysis, each day is unique, with its own special pattern of change. One day, technology stocks will be hot and oil stocks will be out of favor. The next session might see oil stocks as the biggest gainers. One day the Dow Industrial Average will be up 60 points and the outlook for business development will appear favorable. The following session has the market correcting 100 points on the Dow, with growing inflation becoming a real threat.
MARKET PREDICTIONS
As J. Pierpont Morgan so succinctly put it, the market will indeed fluctuate ; it tends to do that during every trading session. When stockbrokers are asked the question, What will the market do they will either attempt to be positive or neutral on the subject. Many analysts will give a lengthy explanation of what the market should do and why. But it s a simple fact that no one knows precisely what the overall stock market will do. The best one can hope for is to find a few signals of strength or weakness. One way to look for these signals is to look at trends.
STOCK MARKET TRENDS
The concept of looking at stock market trends began in the late 1800s with Charles Henry Dow, one of the founding fathers of Dow Jones &
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PART II Analysis
Company and the Wall Street Journal. Dow followed market trends based on the Dow Industrial Average and the Dow Railroad Average (now the Transportation Average). He followed what he called primary, secondary, and tertiary trends. The creation of the Dow averages and definition of trends formed the basis of the technical analysis used today. The study done by Dow and later by editor William Hamilton eventually became known as the Dow theory. Here, we will look at trends in relationship to divergence, support, and resistance. Three Trends The daily movements of the stock market, the tertiary trends, are important in the way they affect the secondary and long-term trends. The longterm trend, or primary trend, shows the overall direction of the stock market for an extended period of time, usually six months or more. The term current trend can refer either to the long-term trend or secondary trend, which is a short-term trend showing a reaction or move in the opposite direction to the primary trend. Stock Prices Move as a Group One concept that all analysts agree on is that stock prices tend to move as a group. Dow Average, Standard & Poor s, and Nasdaq (over-the-counter) stocks tend to move as a group. If they diverge from moving as a group, it is a signal of weakness in the stock market. The tendency of stock prices moving as a group is what makes up a trend. Divergences are changes in trend that show stocks not moving as a group. It is difficult to know whether the signal means a change in trend or the appearance of a secondary trend. However, the divergence is a technical signal of market weakness. There are also times when divergence occurs and the stock market ignores a divergence signal and continues to move upward. The investor who is aware of trends has the advantage of knowing whether the market is strong and in what direction it is going. First the divergence signal, then the reaction, followed by a turn in direction. The sequence can be illustrated by the events surrounding the October 1987 crash: An all-time high for the Dow Industrials was reached in August. The Dow Utility Average had been declining since April. The Federal discount rate was raised, signaling a rise in interest rates.
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