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Part of the Picture Obviously, an investor can follow insider trading as an investment strategy by itself. However, investment professionals recommend the use of additional analysis to form a conclusion before taking action. Corporate insiders can have any one of several reasons or motives for buying and selling their company s stock. Therefore, it is prudent to use information on insider trades as part of the picture of a company rather than as a sole indicator. Sells vs. Buys Unless there are several insiders selling the same stock, sells are generally not meaningful as an indicator. Insiders are often selling stocks to raise cash to purchase items other than the company s stock. A new car, boat, or a down payment on a lake cabin can be motivators for the insider. Also important is the strength of the individual sector or the entire stock market. If a market sell-off is in progress, it would not be particularly meaningful to see company insiders selling stock also.
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Yes, the insiders are selling. But should you
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The headline of a New York Times article poses the titular question. Heavy insider selling is usually thought to be a bearish signal. The Times, however, relies on work by Nejat Seyhun, a finance professor at the University of Michigan to suggest that the current wave of selling is not necessarily pro-bear.
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[Seyhun explains that] the new wave of insider selling has occurred while the stock market has been rallying. His research has found that such selling carries far less bearish significance than selling during a market decline. To document this difference, Professor Seyhun looked at each publicly traded company on the New York and American stock exchanges and the Nasdaq market from the beginning of 1975 to the end of 2000, identifying all months when the company s insiders were net sellers. Professor Seyhun found that when insiders sold during a decline, the stocks they sold lagged behind the overall market by an average of 5 percent over the next 12 months. In contrast, Professor Seyhun found no discernible pattern in the subsequent performance of stocks sold by insiders while the market was rallying.
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As a result, he concludes, the current high level of insider selling provides no signal for the market s direction. He advises investors who base their equity exposure on the behavior of insiders to sit tight and watch both stock prices and insider trading in the coming months.(See http://www.typepad.com/t/trackback/171992.)
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LOGICALLY, BUYS CAN HAVE MORE SIGNIFICANCE
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Buys can have significance, although again, they should not be the only consideration for selecting a stock. Does it work The answer is mixed, but one can find evidence of successful situations based on insider buys. First, the Obligatory Caution Results can vary when the activities of others are used as a forecasting tool. What works on one occasion might be a dismal failure on the next. All stock market analysis systems are capable of sending false signals. The investor needs to be aware of this and not rely too heavily on any one system of analysis. Strong Positives Standard & Poor s CompuStat, a market data provider, compiles numbers on insider stock activity. CompuStat tracks the buying and selling of shares by the top 10 individuals based on the number of shares bought or sold having an insider relationship with a company, using information gathered from Securities and Exchange documents. Based on CompuStat data, we looked for companies where the transaction values of insider purchases over the last 12 months exceeded those of insider sales in the same period by a ratio of at least 10 to 1 (transaction values are derived from the number of shares bought or sold, multiplied by the prevailing purchase or sale price at the time). A ratio that high may be an indication of strong positive sentiment on the part of company insiders. The stocks had to pass one final test: Each had to carry a ranking of four stars (accumulate) or five stars (buy) from Standard & Poor s equity analysts. These rankings indicate that analysts expect the stocks to outperform the market over the next six to 12 months. After we ran the numbers, 22 stocks emerged, which are listed in Table 9-1. Which of these stocks do you wish you had bought back in April 2002 Well, it was a bear market, after all. The bear market clobbered
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