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Dow Industrial Average, April 2001 February 2004
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12,000 Dow Industrial Average Levels 11,000 June 2, 2001, Change in Trend Long-term Trend lines 10,000 5,000,000,000 4,500,000,000 4,000,000,000 9,000 3,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 8,000 Dow Industrials Volume 7,000 2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 6,000
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Dow Industrial Average, 2001 to 2004 Investors who noticed the turn in the stock market by observing the daily decline in the Dow Industrial and Transportation Averages, and who listened to the market opinions given by many analysts before June, would likely have taken some protective action. Market anticipation had been fueled by interest in tech stocks. Once the tech stock bubble came to a sudden halt, so did the market rally. The market correction was more severe than expected due to strong selling effects of programmed trading. Some would say the market became oversold, as shown by a quick recovery. Nasdaq and Standard & Poor s 500 Indexes These indexes (Figure 1-2) performed a similar maneuver, turning, going flat, and then starting a downtrend. All three indexes showed a similar trend, with frequent secondary rallies. All three groups of stocks turned and crossed the trend line in the fall of 2002. The following year had a strong uptrend for the majority of stocks.
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Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P 500 Index, 1999-2003
1,800 Standard & Poors 500 Index (Left Scale) 7,000 8,000
1,600
1,400 6,000 1,200 5,000 1,000 Downtrend lines Uptrends 3,000 600 400 Nasdaq Composite Index (Right Scale) 2,000 4,000
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STOCK MOVES: DOWN
Buying a car, a computer, or a new television, only to see it on sale the following week, can be a big source of irritation. Of course, the same holds true for stocks. To pay $52 a share one day, then to hear some negative news and see a price of $42 the next week, is not a pleasant experience. If the investor s research and selection are valid, the price will probably recover and move to new highs. But the price damage on the way down can be difficult to endure. An interesting phenomenon can occur with a stock price that appears to keep on dropping. As the price declines, investors will appear to buy up shares at perceived bargain prices. If enough of these bargain hunters appear, they can stop the price drop, but sellers might overpower them. Bottom is where the price stops declining and goes flat or begins to retrace its upward trend. The bottom shown in the chart in Figure 1-1 was reached at 7,552.1 in the Dow Industrial Average on March 12, 2003. On Sale, Limited Time Only Many investors consider a market dip, pullback, correction, or bear market a buying opportunity. The price is lower, the stock s on sale. The
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reasons for a price decline can be serious; lower earnings or estimates are predicted, credit ratings are lowered, or a possible lawsuit or tax problem has developed. The reason for a price decline might not be so serious: market correction, profit taking, employee stock distribution, or no newsrelated reason at all. Whatever the reason for a stock price move, it can be worthwhile to find out why it is moving before investing. Information about a stock in question can be obtained from the news media, the Internet, or by calling the company directly. Calling the company might be difficult if hundreds of other investors are trying to do the same thing. Often calling the stockbroker or checking a news service on a computer will provide the answer. Learning why a stock is declining in price can enable the investor to form a strategy of buy, hold, or sell.
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