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Keep in mind, these are tendencies, not guarantees. The stock market does what buyers and sellers determine, not necessarily what someone thinks it s supposed to do.
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Resistance becomes support, and support becomes resistance. The two conditions of support and resistance switch roles (Figure 12-1). When resistance is penetrated, resistance becomes support. If the Dow Industrial Average stops a few times at the 10,000 level, then rises to 10,100, the former resistance level becomes support. On the other end, if the market falls through a support area, that area becomes new resistance. In November 2002 the Dow Industrial Average encountered previously established resistance at 8,996 points. It corrected, dropping until it found support at 7,891 points.
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Stock prices also show areas of support and resistance. In fact, they are a key element in technical analysis and are frequently observed by the funFIGURE 12 1
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Dow Industrial Average and Volume, 2002 2004
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11,000 Dow Industrial Average and Volume 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000
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6,000,000,000 5,500,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,500,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,000,000,000
Resistance
Support
It Depends on Support and Resistance
damental analyst. As with indicators, the areas show where buyers or sellers enter the market. In March 2004, Paul Cherney, chief analyst for Standard & Poor s, had this to say about the importance of support in his March 2, 2004 article for Insight from Standard & Poors, Support Levels Are Key : All the historical studies in the world don t matter if prices do not move in agreement with them. Even though we are in a period of time when recently there has been a history of positive price action, if price is not moving in the same direction as the tendencies quantified in the studies suggest, then the studies do not matter, only prices matter. The support levels mentioned above appear important because neither the Nasdaq nor the S&P 500 was able to establish a higher high, and that means that if there is a close below those support levels, then a series of lower highs and lower lows will have been established, and that is the definition of a downtrend.
IMPERFECT PREDICTORS
Support and resistance do not really predict or forecast what will happen next. All they do is indicate what happened in the past and could happen again. The anticipation and subsequent actions of buyers and sellers will determine what happens. However, the knowledge of support and resistance can give the investor an indication of what is likely to happen. The Example of 3M Take a look at the price action of 3M (Figure 12-2). Notice how the $60 price level was strong resistance back in 2001 to about April 2002. The price then shifted up a bracket and the resistance that had been so strong became support, to July 2003, where the stock rallied all the way up to $85 a share. Notice how in July and October 2002 corrections that penetrated the support level tended to fall much further. This is also true of the upside. As resistance is penetrated, a good rally usually ensues.
THEY ARE IMPORTANT
The understanding of resistance and support, both at the broad market level and the individual stock level, are important to seeing what a price is likely to do. Remember that when a support or resistance level is penetrated, more of the same can be expected, usually (but not always) to the next level of support or resistance.
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