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Notice that the objective says nothing about price growth. That s because price growth is not a consideration for an income objective. The steady income is important. Any growth in price is just an extra benefit if the investor chooses to sell some or all of the stock. The price growth is often why income investors will choose stock rather than safer U.S. Treasury securities. A Short Analysis The analysis used in this chapter is a brief form of Fundamental Analysis, examining the revenues, earnings, dividends, and price growth of a company. Even a short analysis tells a lot about a company and its consistent growth. The purpose of this chapter is not to explain analysis, but to illustrate how an analysis can be made based on the information readily available to investors.
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Growth Investors looking for growth should consider revenue and earnings growth as a higher priority than dividends. Price growth over the past five years essentially replaces dividend growth as a focal point. Growth companies are generally small to midsize, and they are leaders or are becoming leaders in their industry niche. A benchmark for performance can be an index such as the Russell 2,000 Index or the Wilshire 5,000 Index. However, because of the influence of growth stocks on the entire stock market, the investor should also look at the stock s performance within the Dow Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor s 500 Index for growth comparisons. The price-earnings ratios (P/E ratio equals the price divided by earnings) can be an important part of determining risk in growth stocks, but the ratios should not be examined alone. A current P/E ratio in comparison to a company s five-year average P/E ratio can show whether a stock is currently more or less attractive to buyers. Although it s an oversimplification, a higher than average P/E is considered to indicate more risk, and a lower than average P/E means less risk. It is essential to look at the information behind the P/E ratio and ask why it is high or low. Comparing the P/E ratio to other companies in the same industry can also be helpful in determining risk and market appeal. For growth stock objectives, look at:
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Price growth Revenue growth Earnings growth Price-earnings ratio (present to five-year average) Analyst opinion (Why will the growth continue )
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Growth stock objectives should be evaluated at least annually, but they can also be evaluated quarterly or even monthly. A caution with monthly evaluations: Don t overreact and sell out too soon.
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TOTAL RETURN
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Total return stocks are dividend-paying stocks that also have good price growth. The focus is usually on industry leaders, the stalwarts that also pay out dividends. These would include the so-called blue-chip stocks like General Electric, 3M, and IBM. They are considered lower-risk stocks because they are well-established companies and because every time a dividend is paid out, the risk is lowered by the amount of each dividend. Analysis of total return stocks is similar to the analysis for growth stocks, but it will obviously include dividends and dividend growth. The objective statement needs to include both price and dividend growth. Total return objectives can be evaluated annually, quarterly, or monthly just be careful with sell decisions. Don t sell out too quickly when the market declines. Often that is the best time to buy more stock.
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SPECULATION
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The speculation category covers everything else. It can be the act of investing with wild abandonment, or it can include some analysis to moderate risk. Although there is a belief among many that higher risk brings higher rewards this is not usually what happens. Higher risk can also mean greater losses. Rather than approaching speculative investing with wild abandonment, why not just extend the objective to a higher level. If the Standard & Poor s Index is growing at 10 percent, set the objective at 30 percent, or use a shorter time period for achievement. Use basic fundamental analysis to find companies that either have or are working toward strong revenues and earnings. Technical analysis is also used for short-term speculative investing, but the risk can be moderated by learning some basics about the company.
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