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Again, ask questions and search for answers. Why isn t the stock price moving If other similar stocks and the market are doing well, there is a reason for a lack of movement in a given stock. Has there been bad news recently that has created a lack of investor interest, or is the stock currently a gem waiting to be discovered Although rare, undiscovered gems can experience dramatic price surges with even a small amount of publicity. Some investors follow a strategy of seeking out these gems, but often they end up with well-run companies that the market doesn t like. Usually they are basically good companies with limited growth potential. Major investors search for companies with virtually unlimited growth potential.
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Why a stock price is moving upward is most important to investors who don t currently own it but would like to be in on the action. Normally, when there is a sudden surge in either the stock market or an individual stock, the news appears quickly to trumpet the event.
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Some believe that any time is a good time to buy stock, because over the long term, the stock will grow and prosper. Essentially that s correct, although there can obviously be better times than others to buy stock. Usually the best time to buy stock in general is when a downtrend turns up and solidly crosses the trend line. If this is the beginning of a new uptrend and not just a secondary trend, the timing should be good.
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Many boiler room sales representatives have touted this doubtful idea
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more than once. Yes, it can be easy for some low-priced stocks to double in price. However, it can also be easy for high-priced stocks to double in price. The point is that price doubling depends on factors other than the current price level. For example, it depends on changes in efficiency, restructuring, revenue growth, or earnings growth. The stocks might be new companies or old companies that have recently had earnings problems, companies that show signs of a turnaround. Like Onyx Acceptance Corporation. Onyx On January 2, 2003, Onyx traded at $2.73. The stock price more than doubled by June, and increased by the same amount by July. It finally topped out at $11.73 by December (Figure 2-1). That kind of growth is terrific for any priced stock, if it stabilizes and doesn t drop back to previous levels. The big question for the investor is: Do I get out now or hold on to the stock There is no easy answer. No one wants to sell a stock too soon and leave money on the table. At the same time, it can be terribly aggravating to see a stock price double and fall back to previous low levels. Volatility can be an additional frustration. Onyx has a beta factor of 1.0, which means that it is about as volatile as the rest of the stock market.
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FIGURE
Onyx Acceptance Corporation, January 2003 May 2004
$18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 Onyx Acceptance Corporation Nasdaq: ONYX $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00
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180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
What about a higher-priced stock Texas Instruments Starting in January 1999, at $22.29 per share, the price doubled by October and nearly doubled again in February 2000 (Figure 2-2). Wow! That s terrific. It s truly amazing to see any stock price double in that short a time. The trouble is, it wasn t stable. As part of the Technology sector, it was a bubble about to burst. The price then fell nearly as fast as it rose. Technology stocks fell and brought the market down with them. The stock trader who got out fast enough made good money. The buy and hold investor became worried and frustrated. It is interesting to note that Texas Instruments runs a beta of 1.8, nearly twice as volatile as Onyx. The price decline in this situation was probably more related to the weakness in the Technology sector and the market as a whole. But the 1.8 beta should have given some cautionary warning of lack of stability. (Beta is a measure of volatility. A beta of 1 is equal to the market in volatility. A beta of 2 is twice as volatile.)
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