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Back in the early days of Wall Street, it was stated, Buy that which is
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cheap and sell that which is dear. Charles Dow, one of the founding fathers of Dow Jones & Company and the first managing editor of the Wall Street Journal, might have put it this way: Buy a stock that has value in earnings and value in the dividend paid out. As this stock rises in price and the value of earnings and dividends declines, sell the stock. Although the methods of evaluating stocks of value may have changed, the basic idea is still sound. The anticipation of value and value growth are what make a stock price rise. The value is not the price alone. However, it is one of the factors in determining value. Another important factor of value is earnings past and earnings forecast. Stock prices move in anticipation of future earnings growth.
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The idea of buy low, sell high is as old as trading ownership of properties. It is the basis of all business. Buy a property at one price and sell it at a higher price. The difference between the buy and sell transactions is profit. To make a profit is the reason to buy and sell stock. It is the one axiom almost everyone understands but many have trouble doing. An investor hears that Company ABC is buying out XYC Company. The stock had been trading at $24.50 a share, but the buyout is
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expected to be at $28.00. The investor knows there is some risk involved and so decides to think about buying 100 shares. The following afternoon the investor calls the broker and learns that XYZ Company is now trading at $30.00. A feeling of panic overcomes the investor because the price is above the buyout price already. Better place that buy order. An order to buy 100 shares of XYZ Company is placed and filled at $27.50 a share. The following week the investor calls the broker to check on XYZ Company and learns that it is now trading at $25.50. That s a $2 loss per share. Even more frightening, it s a 10 percent loss. Trying to restrain the feeling of panic, the investor gives instructions to sell the 100 shares of XYZ Company at the market. The order is entered and executed at $25.25. A few weeks later the investor decides to look at the price quote in the newspaper and is shocked to find the stock closed yesterday at $26.50 a share. The investor feels disappointed and exasperated about investing. Sound Exaggerated It isn t, really. In fact, this scenario could have occurred with Disney in early 2004, when Comcast was trying to buy them out (see Figure 16-1). What Went Wrong Several things. When the investor first heard about the takeover, it was already late in the game to make a play. Thinking for a day or two about buying or selling can sometimes be disastrous. The investor sold out the position without learning the details. Once a strategy is put in play, an investor should not be so quick to change. The investor should have checked the background on the two companies. The 10 percent loss strategy is just that, a 10 percent loss. It has nothing to do with how a price will perform in the next few days. Some professional investors look for stocks that are down 10 to 15 percent and consider them buying opportunities. They know the 10 percenters (with weak hands) will be bailing out and the stock prices can become even better bargains. These investors will allow a 10, 15, or even 20 percent drop (and sometimes more) because the majority of buyers did not buy at the top.
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If an investor is going to speculate on takeovers, it is important that he or she realize that the prices will tend to be volatile until the actual takeover occurs.
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