WHERE ARE THE PLAYS
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Individual investors can seek out stocks that are either in play by the institutions or are likely to come into play. Often they are stocks with strong fundamentals in earnings and revenues, found in industries with good growth potential. In the late 1990s computer software companies with
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Buy High, Sell Higher
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products related to the Internet showed great potential. Medical products and devices can be exciting fast-growth companies. Sometimes older products companies with strong growth records do well. Gannett Company, Inc. Take a look at the price movement of Gannett stock in Figure 17-1. A glance at the price chart shows strong price growth, in line with the stock market. Growth was especially strong in the 2001 and late 2003. The price went from the low 50s to more than $80 a share. Volume increased also just more buyers than sellers. On the way up there were several areas of weakness, dips in price that turned out to be excellent buying opportunities. In 2002 there was an opportunity at about the $70 level. And along the way there were several $8 or $9 dips that provided some excellent buying opportunities.
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Gannett Company, January 1999 April 2004
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$100.00 Gannett Company, Inc. NYSE: GSI $90.00 16,000,000 14,000,000 $80.00 12,000,000 $70.00 10,000,000 $60.00 8,000,000 $50.00 6,000,000 $40.00 4,000,000 2,000,000
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Ja n9 9
PART III Strategy
The strategy of buy high, sell higher can be enhanced by anticipated increases in earnings or by corporate takeover situations. Although anticipation of higher earnings creates unusually high P/E ratios, when the earnings do increase, the ratios return to normal levels. If the earnings do not cause a return to normal levels, sellers will eventually force the return. As the price drops, so will the P/E ratio.
Corporate takeovers create a different situation. Professional arbitrageurs go on search missions in which they look specifically for companies likely to be bought out by some other company. In the late 1980s there were several large leveraged buyout (LBO) situations. The LBO takeover can become a classic buy high, sell higher situation. For those companies who could arrange the deals, there was less risk with greater profits.
Buying high and selling higher can be a viable way to make money in the stock market, but it is not without risk. The strategy usually calls for the intention of a longer-term hold for example, when the earnings cannot catch up with the price, or, in a takeover, when the deal is finalized. Although it is possible to trade in and out during volatile times, the whipsaw effects of being on the wrong side can be devastating. Corporate takeovers that fail to materialize are a different story. If a buyout does not occur, the stock price will probably fall to previous levels or below. Most often, investors would be prudent to sell and take the loss quickly, rather than hang on and hope for a recovery. A prudent play after selling out can be to attempt bottom fishing once the price gets hammered. Such activity should be based on the individual s belief that the stock can weather the storm and that the company is still capable of generating good earnings. It would not be unusual for institutional or other experienced stock traders to play these stocks for small profits. They might sell short at the peaks and attempt to buy long at the lows. Such actions often end up to be momentum oriented. They watch the trades minute by minute to see if there is any strength as shown by volume. If strength is indicated by larger volume, they hold their position. If the volume declines, they close out their positions and plan their next strategy. Obviously, timing is everything in these speculative strategies.