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the weekly it will be missed. But weekly data can be used for most trend line establishments and turning point areas.
NEVER SHORT THE TREND SHORT THE TURN
Selling short is a risky way of investing. It should be approached with caution, and with knowledge of the company and its price trend. Buy stop orders can be used for upside protection, but they cannot substitute for vigilance in study and observation. Short selling is most often pursued on a short-term basis, before the stock drops low enough to become attractive to buyers or another company with takeover plans.
Make Winners Win Big
It was Jessie Livermore, known for his aggressive investing at the turn of
the century, who indicated the importance of winning big. When the investor s conclusions, based on analysis, are correct, it s time to win big. Livermore did this when he sold short shares of Union Pacific Railroad just before the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. At first the price did not drop. The company was strong and the price held. After all, it was one of the best companies on Wall Street. Livermore believed it would take a few weeks for the news to spread and the implications of the news to be realized, and he put his fortune on the line, expecting as much. Eventually, he was proven right and his fortune multiplied significantly. He believed in winning big when he knew he was right.
VALUE
Winning stocks are a special situation. Although it is prudent to establish a price objective for a winning stock, value also needs to be considered before selling. Value is the price appreciation in relation to the fundamental growth of the company (e.g., earnings and revenues). The momentum of anticipation can cause a company s stock price to run ahead of earnings potential. Sometimes the earnings potential backfills the price growth, and sometimes it doesn t. More than one investment adviser is guilty of saying, When you make 100 percent or 200 percent on a stock, sell and take the profit. Leave something for the next investor. Livermore didn t believe in such a strat104 Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Click here for terms of use.
Make Winners Win Big
egy, most institutional investors surely do not follow that practice, and it s a cinch that Warren Buffett doesn t sell because of the amount of profit in a stock. So why should anyone else sell, just when the action gets interesting
PROFITS LEFT ON THE TABLE
Any sustained bull market will give examples of stock that should not have been sold even though the price may have doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled. Significant profits are frequently left on the table as a misguided investor sells to take profits too soon. Say for example you got real lucky and bought Ball Corporation (Figure 20-1), the packaging company, at $15 a share back in October 2000. Please note that the price was not actually that low. The $15 also includes a two for one forward split in February 2002 (S). But effectively you paid the $15 per share price tag. You bought a thousand shares and put out $15,000 plus some commission.
FIGURE 20-1
Ball Corporation, April 1999 March 2004
$70.00 Ball Corporation NYSE: BLL $60.00 $45 $50.00 S $40.00 $60 6,200,000
5,200,000
4,200,000
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3,200,000
2,200,000
$10.00
1,200,000
$0.00
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200,000
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