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PART III Strategy
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You could have sold the stock in October 2001 and made a 100 percent gain on your investment. Later, you could have sold in March 2002 and made 200 percent on you original investment. Or you could have sold in January 2004 and made 400 percent on your original investment. Knowing all that, would you still want to sell when you doubled your money I don t think so. So forget the nonsense about selling and taking profits when it s not necessary. Only two things can make it necessary: 1. You need the money for something else. 2. You believe that the growth potential of the stock has changed. When you get a stock that is winning, let it win as big as it can. Avoid chopping the legs out from under it by selling too soon to take profits. It s the losers you want to sell, not the winners. If you re in business, you don t fire your best employees; and if you re an investor, don t sell your best stocks.
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Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News
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An old saying that usually accompanies the buy high, sell higher strategy is to buy on the rumor, sell on the news. This can be an effective strategy in many ways, but the investor must be aware of the circumstances. For instance, the rumor might have been fabricated with the intent of pushing the stock price up. Financial consultants, advisers, or stockbrokers tend to discourage those who would buy any stock based on rumor. False rumors frequently appear regarding corporate takeover situations. The share prices advance, but then suddenly retreat to former levels. In most situations it is best to leave the rumor alone. In fact, buying on the news can be appealing at times. Perhaps a better refinement would be: Do not wait for the buyout to occur.
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Although back in the 1980s the tire company Firestone had a takeover offer at $40, which was sweetened to $70 by a new suitor, such increases are rare and have not occurred in more recent years. Northwest Airlines had a takeover offer increased by a new suitor. Back then, selling on the news was selling too soon. Now, it might make more sense. For example, take Disney.
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PART III Strategy
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According to Figure 21-1, an investor might have bought Disney at $23 or $24 a share and sold on the news at $28, making a $4 or $5 per share gain in a couple of days. However, notice that there is not much time to make these decisions. The price quickly runs up and immediately starts to decay. Obviously, sell on the news means right away.
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When takeover details are announced, the market price of the target company will usually rise to, or close to, the new market value, the value of the acquisition. Many investors sell their holdings at this point instead of waiting for the actual takeover. Although they might not receive the full acquisition value, their assets aren t tied up while waiting for the deal to be completed. Also, they don t lose out if the acquisition fails to materialize.
SPECULATIVE STRATEGY
Buying on rumor and selling on or after news is high speculation. Things change, and takeovers can fail to occur. Rumors reach the news media
FIGURE 21 1
Walt Disney Company, December 2003 May 2004
$30.00 $29.00 $28.00 $27.00 Rumor $26.00 $25.00 $24.00 $23.00 $22.00 $21.00 $20.00
4 3 3 4 -0 4 -0 4 4 4 -0 -0 -0 n0 b0 r-0 ay ec ec Ap ay ar ar -0 M 4
The Walt Disney Company NYSE: DIS News February 12, 2004
200,000,000 180,000,000 160,000,000 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000
Deal Falls Through
Trendline Daily Share Volume
40,000,000 20,000,000 0
Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News
after the action has started. Often, this is too late for the individual investor. Many sophisticated investors avoid rumor investing because of the uncertainty. It is more prudent to look for companies that might become attractive takeover candidates and have other desirable traits. Then, if these companies are not taken over, the investor still has a quality stock at a good price.
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