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Never Short a Dull Market
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Nasdaq Composite Index (Monthly), September 2002 March 2003
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1,600 Nasdaq Composite Index Monthly 9/02 to 2/03 1,500 Dull Market 1,400 55,000,000,000 50,000,000,000 45,000,000,000 1,300 40,000,000,000 1,200 35,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 1,100 25,000,000,000 1,000 20,000,000,000 65,000,000,000 60,000,000,000
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Nasdaq Composite Index (Daily), September 2002 March 2004
2,400 4,000,000,000 2,200 Nasdaq Composite Index September 2002 March 2004 Daily Close Levels 3,500,000,000 2,000 Not a good area to sell short
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1,600
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1,500,000,000
PART IV Trading
The daily chart makes it immediately clear how unwise a short sell would have been. The Nasdaq Composite Index went from being nearly flat to a roaring bull market.
LOOK OUT FOR A SQUEEZE
Selling short is a speculative strategy requiring timing, patience, and skill. Dull markets are notorious for sudden rallies that put the squeeze on short sellers. In fact, traders usually refer to these rallies as being a short squeeze or squeezing out the shorts. A short seller caught in a squeeze runs the risk of receiving a margin call for additional cash or marginable securities to be deposited, or the risk of being forced to sell at a loss. Never short a dull market means to be careful with the underlying strength of stock prices in a market that has become lethargic, with no clear trend. As shown by the past 10 years, the underlying strength can turn to buying activity on the slightest positive news. The ensuing rally and resumption of the uptrend creates a high-risk situation for the short investor.
It s Best to Trade at the Market
arket orders have priority. It s important to remember that fact. A market order says that the investor is willing to buy or sell shares immediately at the best available price. The order takes precedence over any other kind of order. It must be presented to the trading crowd by the specialist on the stock exchange, at the earliest possible moment. In reality, a computer matches the vast majority of market orders. The result is a nearly immediate execution and report.
IMPLICATIONS OF A MARKET ORDER
A market order implies that the investor desires a fast execution. It says that the investor wants to buy or sell the stock immediately. The only time delay that occurs is when a broker is entering the order. It also implies that any price is acceptable. That fact is often forgotten until an investor pays more than expected for a stock purchase or receives less than anticipated on a sell. In a steady, evenly paced market, a buy order will be filled at or near the current offer on the stock quote, and at or near the bid on a sell. In a fast-market situation, an investor could pay a few or even several dollars more per share when his or her order is actually executed. This can be of real concern in a takeover situation, where $20 or $60 or more extra per share might be paid with a market order. It is the main reason takeover offers are normally not announced during trading hours. The uncertainty of price necessitates that buyers check the current trading price when placing an order to buy or sell stock.
139 Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Click here for terms of use.
PART IV Trading
Although the vast majority of trades are filled at one price, a market order is quoted in terms of a round lot, normally 100 shares, although there are exceptions. This practice may create a problem with thinly traded stocks. If necessary, multiple round lots can be broken into smaller lots, with different prices.
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