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ONLY AN ANNOUNCEMENT
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Some stock buyback announcements are just that announcements. Following the announcement, either the buyback never occurs or fewer shares are repurchased. Possibly the company originally intended to repurchase the shares, but things change and they are later unable to do so because the economics have changed. The financing became unavailable.
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Stephen Russ, quoted in Steven D. Kaye, A Buyback Binge, U.S. News & World Report, February 17, 1997.
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Although companies are occasionally accused of trumpeting a stock buyback for the purpose of supporting or accelerating the price, in reality that practice is unusual. The large majority of stock buyback activities are sincere.
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WHAT HAPPENS TO THE STOCK
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Much of the stock is effectively retired, clearing up some of the dilution problems. Other shares are used for employee retirement and stock option plans. Obviously, this is a good effect if the shares have true value, but a negative effect if they are overpriced. Stock buyback announcements have many implications. In some cases it is a positive move for the company and its shareholders, even if only temporary. It improves the earnings per share since there are often fewer shares outstanding. And a stock price will often rise after a buyback announcement, especially in a rising market. However, the price can weaken and fall if negative news follows. An understanding of the company s announcement and the current true value of the stock can help an investor decide whether to buy or sell the stock.
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Heavy Volume, the Price Rises Light Volume, the Price Falls
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n the surface, this seems to make sense. When more investors become interested in a stock, they buy. The volume increases. Less interest means lower volume. Although this is true in some situations, it is not always evident. Whether or not this is true depends on several factors, including the current market strength and direction, as well as the strength and direction of an individual stock price. To understand how volume may increase before prices increase, it is important to remember the existence of limit sell orders. Many times volume will suddenly increase; the price starts to increase and then falls slightly. Part of the reason for the decline is the presence of limit sell orders, or overhead supply. Another possible reason is nervous stock traders who buy on the volume increase but don t see the quick price advance and so bail out. Exxon Mobil Exxon Mobil, a well-known oil company, has had the industry s share of difficulties with low oil prices. Because it is a commodity, the supply of oil needs to be controlled in order to keep prices high. If too much is produced, the market becomes competitive and prices fall, which has a negative impact on prices. Looking at the price and volume chart for Exxon in Figure 4-1, you can pinpoint occasions when increased volume precedes an increase in the share
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PART 1
Research
F I G U R E 4 1 Prices and Volume, Exxon Mobil Corporation, April 2001 January 2004
$50.00 Exxon Mobil Corporation Prices and Volume NYSE: XOM $45.00 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 $35.00 25,000,000 20,000,000 $30.00 15,000,000 10,000,000
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price (the five arrows). The volume increase in June 2002 is especially pronounced.
ON-BALANCE VOLUME
Individual one-day spikes can also be significant signals, but notice that many of them are increased volume on a dropping price. Because of this, the signals can become confusing. Some investors counteract the confusion by using on-balance volume (OBV), by which they compare the volume to the price. Developed by Joseph Granville, OBV can be a helpful indicator. It creates a volume line along the bottom of a price chart and is easily constructed. Start with a number that is relatively high, such as 50,000. On the first day, if the close is positive, that day s volume is added to the 50,000 beginning number. If the day s close ends lower, subtract the volume. On up days, add the volume, and on down days, subtract the volume. The result creates a fluctuating line. On-balance volume can show an approaching trend change. The belief is that smart money sells a security when it s near a top, and smart money
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