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There was not much of a rally in 1994, but the next five years more than made up for it, with a nearly continuous rally. What some called the rally of the century. The Dow Industrial Average climbed an incredible 11,489 points, with the Transportation Average gaining an outstanding 2,969 points. The S&P 500 Index was up 1,461 points, and the Nasdaq Index advanced 4,061 points (Figure 48-1). In 1999 the rallies were strong in three of the four stock groups. The Transportation Average actually had a decline, possibly giving an early signal of weakness for what was to follow. The decline in 2002 followed an earlier rally that many would describe as Santa showing up early.
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14,000 Dow Industrial Average Dow Transportation Average S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Index (10 years of rallies) Early Santa 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 6,000 2000 1500 1000 2,000 Transportation Average 500 0
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ALWAYS A SANTA RALLY
There s no such thing as always for the fluctuations of the stock market. Because the market trades on anticipation of higher or lower prices, it frequently surprises investors with rallies or corrections. Although it is possible to have a bearish trend in the last two months of a year, there will likely be some kind of rally. Some of these rallies will be significant, others quite modest. Table 48-1 details the changes in four market indexes during the final two months in the past 10 years. As you can see, in all but two instances there was in fact a Santa Rally. There is a repetitive tendency of the stock market to rally between the months of November and December. An investor can take advantage of such rallies by patiently waiting for them to appear and then deciding to take a profit.
There s (Almost) Always a Santa Claus Rally
TABLE
48-1
Santa Claus Rally Point Increases for 10 years
Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001* 2002 2003
Dow Industrials 95.2 42.63 73.43 85.12 64.88 619.31 373.5 170.01 499.06 671.46
Dow Transports 11.64 89.32 35.15 56.54 118.08 67.48 195.41 128.21 100.55 85.82
S&P 500 5.58 10.56 16.28 15.03 65.60 80.34 5.33 8.63 50.54 53.72
Nasdaq Index 1.64 7.06 1.58 30.20 243.15 733.15 127.4 19.82 149.03 43.11
Early rally
A Stock Price Splits When It Gets Too High
It s kind of a combination of yes and no. On the no side is Warren Buffett
with Berkshire Hathaway. The BRK.A shares at $93,500 a share and the BRK.B shares at $3,115 a share more than suggest that splitting is not a necessary function of a too-high price level. Even so, many companies will announce the reason for a two for one, three for one, or three for two, or some other forward split as necessary to lower the price to make the stock available to a larger group of investors.
SPLIT TYPES
It s the forward split that is considered a neutral to positive event. On the other hand, a backward or reverse split is considered a very negative occasion. The reverse split lowers the number of shares and increases the current price. If you have 1,000 shares of stock at $1.00 per share, a 10-for1 reverse split would leave 100 shares at $10.00 each. The problem is, the price usually doesn t stay at the new higher level for long, but drops back to the bottom.
WHO HAS THE MOST SHARES
Microsoft s split in February of 2003 created 10 billion shares of stock. Still, Microsoft s split put the software company ahead of General Electric as having the most shares outstanding of any U.S. company. To give this some relative perspective, consider that the number 10 billion is:
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A Stock Price Splits When It Gets Too High
More than twice the Earth s age of 4.6 billion years The number of dollars airlines borrowed from the U.S. government after the September 11 attacks More dollars than most people have The estimated number of dollars Michael Jordan has contributed to the economy through the sale of shoes, tickets, and other items, according to Fortune magazine
Hyperbole aside, Microsoft s split is significant in that it happened at all. It is the first major technology firm to split its shares in 10 months, says Jon Johnson, chief market strategist of StockSplits.net. During the late years of the bull market, stock splits were nearly synonymous with tech stocks as prices soared. But when stocks are falling and down to rock bottom prices, as is the case with many formerly leading tech firms there is little reason for companies to split. The price is low enough just due to weakness. So the timing of the Microsoft split was a bit of a bullish signal, at least for the tech market, if not the market as a whole.
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