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NYSE Volume, October 28, 1997 January 28, 1998*
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Daily Volume Records 1,201,347,000 791,946,000 776,331,000 754,111,000 745,003,000 711,969,000 710,903,000 2,812,919,000 2,673,242,000 2,623,758,000 2,578,284,000 2,442,421,000 2,367,955,000 2,316,879,000 2,268,402,000 2,149,946,000 2,137,653,000
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Date Oct. 28, Dec. 12, Oct. 29, Jan. 29, Jan. 9, Oct. 10, Jan. 28, Jul. 24, Jul. 19, Jun. 28, Jun. 25, Jul. 23, Sep. 17, Sep. 21, Jul. 22, Sep. 19, Jul. 11, 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1997 1998 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 2001 2001 2002 2001 2002
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Always look for changes in volume for clues to strength. Short-term and long-term changes both indicate strength, but the longer-term change is normally the most meaningful. In the short term, if the market rallies on weaker volume, the rally will not likely be sustained. If the market falls on light volume, it usually turns up fairly soon. Over the longer term, if the volume goes flat and then trends downward, it will often lead to a weaker market. The greatest strength is shown by an uptrend in the market index (Dow Industrial Average or Standard & Poor s 500 Index) and an uptrend in the volume. When these diverge, it often signals a change in direction.
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Watch the Bellwethers
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Bellwether 1. A wether, or male sheep, which leads the flock, with a bell on its neck. 2. A leader of a thoughtless crowd. Webster s Collegiate Dictionary, 1960 edition
Merriam-Webster possibly had the stock market in mind when adding
the second definition of bellwether. (More recent editions of the dictionary have redefined a bellwether as one that takes the lead or initiative or as an indicator of trends. ) Stock market bellwethers are individual company stocks that are believed to lead the market. If a turn in the market is coming, those who watch these stocks believe the bellwether will turn first.
INDUSTRY BELLWETHERS
Bellwethers can relate to the entire market, to a sector, or to an industry group. They might be leaders in Internet stocks or technology stocks. Someday you might read an article like the following:
Technology stocks stabilized after Tuesday s slide on growing worries about slack demand in the computer industry. The technology-laden Nasdaq composite index, which tumbled nearly 25 points on Tuesday, fell 3.81 to 1,179.27, but several computer-industry bellwethers rebounded. Intel rose 1 to 713 8 and Cisco Systems rose 1 2 to 533 8.
The above quote lists Intel and Cisco Systems as bellwethers for the computer industry. When the term bellwether is used in this way, it is with
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PART 1
Research
a loose interpretation. More than a stock price that turns before the others, it is a descriptive term synonymous with sector, industry, or market leader. If we look at the charts of Cisco Systems and Intel as compared to the Nasdaq Computer Index, we easily see that the prices of the two stocks track the index (Figures 5-1 and 5-2). Only on a few minor occasions does either price turn before the index. When a stock price follows an index closely, it is enough to consider it a bellwether, but it is obviously even better if the stock price turns before the index. One notable bellwether turn appears on the Intel chart in January 2004, when the price of Intel turned down before the Nasdaq Index.
BIG BLUE
For many years the computer industry bellwether was the giant Big Blue, that is, IBM. In fact, IBM is still considered a bellwether by many, not only for the computer industry, but also for the entire stock market. But since IBM ran into the realities created by the business use of personal
FIGURE
Index Tracking, Intel Corporation, January 2003 April 2004
$50.00 2,500
$45.00 Nasdaq Index 2003-2004 (May) $40.00 2,000
$35.00
1,500
$30.00 1,000 Intel Corporation Nasdaq: INTC $20.00 500 $15.00
$25.00
$10.00
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