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Index Tracking, Cisco Systems, January 2003 April 2004
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$30.00 $28.00 Nasdaq Index 2003-2004 (May) $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00
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2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 Cisco Systems, Inc. Nasdaq: CSCO 900 700 500
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computers, its bellwether quality changed in the mind of many investors. During the first half of 1998, for instance, it looked as though IBM wasn t even part of the stock market (Figure 5-3).
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IBM tends to closely track the Dow Industrial Average. Although there are two obvious divergences in 2003 where IBM wandered off by itself (circled areas). A conclusion that can be drawn from Figure 5-3 is that sometimes IBM tracks the Dow Industrials closely and sometimes it does not. It is a bellwether in the sense of being a strong market participant strong enough to be watched closely for market changes but it is not a reliable forecaster of turning points. Even if it had such a tendency, it would probably not last long because stock traders would base trades on the direction of IBM, and it would therefore no longer behave as a bellwether. The two circled areas clearly show that there are times when Big Blue s price can wander off by itself, with the rest of the market going its own way. Such actions raise much skepticism in the minds of bellwether skeptics. At point A in Figure 5-3, the Dow Industrial Average is clearly
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PART 1
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Research
FIGURE
IBM and Dow Industrial Average
11,000 $110
10,500
Dow Industrial Average
$105
10,000
$100
9,500
9,000 IBM 8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
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advancing while the price of IBM turns south. At point B the stock price suddenly advances as if trying to catch up with the average. A similar event occurs at point C. Finally, at point D both the Industrials and IBM retreat in an orderly fashion.
THE PROBLEM OF SOPHISTICATION
Many wheeling-dealing stockbrokers and portfolio managers actively watch bellwethers. Their computer screens constantly display the stock quotes, blinking with each trade and changing color with each uptick or downtick in price. They believe the bellwether stocks give them one more indicator of the strength and direction of the stock market. If the market turns, they look to the bellwether for confirmation. A fair argument is that analysis of the stock market has become so sophisticated that the difference between bellwethers and the market indexes is negligible. One might not be able to use them as leaders, but rather, as confirming indicators.
Watch The Bellwethers
It s not as easy for the individual investor to take advantage of bellwethers. Although some stocks appear to be ahead of the market, the market doesn t wait long before making the change. An investor can t wait for an hour or two to decide whether the market will follow a change in the bellwether. Change tends to happen quickly.
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P A R T
Analysis
here are multitudinous ways to analyze companies and their common stock, but only one thing is important to the investor: an increase in price that is higher and faster than secure fixed income investments. This might relate to how well the business operates, but it s not always the case. There are poorly run businesses whose common stock is quite successful. Some of the successes in the airline industry illustrate this fact. The converse is also true: Some well-run businesses are terrible stocks. The company or its product line might be too small to be interesting to the stock market. This is why finance professors frequently do poorly when investing. They can find good companies, but the stock market doesn t like them. Some knowledge of trends, both of the stock market and individual stocks, is important. Is the current market trend up, down, or in a secondary movement How is the price trend of the individual stock related to the market trend In relation to trends, some knowledge of support and resistance can quickly tell the investor what is likely to happen in a sudden current movement. Looking back at three-year, five-year, and sometimes even 10-year price trends can give some excellent training in finding support and resistance levels.
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