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The ability to effectively be in two places at once, interacting with people at remote locations as if you were really there, is the likely killer driver. However, until these applications are developed and deployed, nobody really knows which application will drive the mass widespread uptake of streaming media technology.
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We have alluded to the importance of standards in previous sections. Besides rights management standards, codec and player standards will have to settle better than they have to date. MPEG-4 looks like the technology of choice for compression and media descriptions. Several heavyweight industry players such as Apple and RealNetworks have aligned themselves around MPEG-4. Even Microsoft has some MPEG-4 support in an otherwise proprietary system. Other standards that will have to settle include those for content syndication, streaming media transport, edge network caching, quality of service, and quality of experience. Today, there are competing standards, often proprietary, in each of these areas. Interoperability between products from different vendors is almost nonexistent. Imagine if you needed a different television set to watch different television networks. In a sense, that is what has happened with digital television. Different networks require you to use their digital set-top boxes and conditional access technology. If streaming media fails to standardize, it will hamper growth of the medium and prevent mass consumer uptake perhaps indefinitely. Of all the factors that can prevent widespread consumer acceptance of streaming media, it seems to me that the glacial progress of standards is the biggest obstacle and the one with no definite finish date.
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At the time of writing, very few companies have successfully found a way to make streaming media pay. There is some hope and indication that distance learning may be the first business to make streaming media profitable. The real reason that sound business models have not emerged is that the industry is only serving a population of technophiles and early adopters. There isn t yet enough of a market to milk for profits. Sound business models eventually emerge once the technology settles to a standard and a majority of consumers adopt the technology. Early
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DVD player vendors must have struggled to make the business pay. Every communications medium so far introduced has found a way to make money. I feel confident that as audience numbers grow and the technical solutions converge, there will be profitable and sound business models. However, this necessarily means that making money will be hard work until at least 2005.
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Media search engines that make good use of metadata in order to index and find digital media items exist today, but are in their developmental infancy. These engines tend to focus on the text included with the media, but a few also do image and sound analysis in order to index media assets. These systems will undoubtedly develop in sophistication and usability. Virage is a vendor with a possible technical solution. Grass Valley Group s ContentShare also has potential in this area. However, there doesn t seem to be a widely deployed, agent-based, distributed search engine which can find content only recently published. Several media search companies, among them Advanced Broadcast Technology in the UK, are developing hardware-based searching engines, to accelerate the process of trawling through billions of video fingerprints and signatures to find matching keys. Singingfish.com is a publicly available media search engine that can search for media-specific items. Search engine Google now allows searches on images as well as text. However, both of these are searching through textual descriptions. Taalee developed a more sophisticated version of the metadata search engine (see www.taalee.com), but Voquette has since acquired this. Media search engines are a necessary component of the widespread adoption of streaming media, since without these, nobody will be able to find out what there is to watch or be alerted to newly published streaming media items. Text-based searches are better than nothing, but the only way to find fresh content today is to visit a known portal and notice what s new. These methods will suffice, but will ultimately be limiting. There is no accurate way to predict how long it will be before specialized media search engines will be widely available. It is likely, however, that demand will stimulate supply. When broadband critical mass is achieved, media search engines will rapidly follow. Thus, these search engines are likely to mature around 2005 or 2006.
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