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When streaming D-Cinema material becomes cheaper, due to Gilder s Law* (roughly stated as bandwidth per unit cost triples every twelve months ) and the relentless improvements in the hard-drive storage capacity of video servers, the necessity of playing to mass audiences is somewhat lessened. Exhibitors may find it cost effective to give films shorter runs and to partition their cinemas into smaller multiplex units, with staggered starting times and a greater choice of titles. Indeed, exhibitors may spring up to serve smaller niches, appealing to cult film audiences, for example. The cost of storing outtakes or alternative scenes on hard disks is not as high as it once was. In 1994, it cost over $200,000 to store all the footage shot for a Hollywood feature film, in low resolution, for editing purposes. Today, the same amount of storage costs less than $2000. In these micro-cinemas, the director s cut, consisting of no more than an edit decision list to instruct the video server to play different stored material at different times, would be very easy to distribute and present. Individual cinemas could even choose the ending of the film that seems to appeal most to their local audiences. The existing film distribution system is not close to realizing these innovations yet, and may not be for some time to come. However, digital streaming technology makes possible many new ways of presenting feature entertainment. It is a matter of time before entrepreneurs realize the potential to use streaming digital media to make more money, while simultaneously addressing new audiences. Innovations will follow.
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Video compression technology, developed to enable streaming media, makes other interesting applications possible. With some encoding techniques, it is now possible to render high-definition television pictures using bandwidth on the order of only 3Mb/s. Computers and mass-storage devices routinely handle data flows at this rate. Compare this to the 270Mb/s normally required for raw, uncompressed, high-definition television pictures. The cost of display technology for high-resolution images
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*George Gilder, Senior Fellow at the Discovery Institute, first made this obseravation in his controversial bookm Telecosm, published in 2000 and revised in 2002. Gilder s Law is analogous to Moore s Law in predicting the future technological capabilities of optical networks, as compared to silicon chips. He studied politics at Harvard under Kissinger and is a regular writer for Forbes, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, and The Harvard Business Review.
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has also decreased, because of advances in micromirror device fabrication (these are used in digital projection systems, as noted earlier) and because of advances in solid-state display technologies, including lightemitting diodes bright enough to be visible outdoors. These technologies, many developed as offshoots of streaming media, make a lot of interesting, cost-effective applications possible. For example, art galleries could feature virtual galleries or even installation art using high-definition streaming technology. Live auctions with accompanying live-streamed, high-definition images of the goods on sale are possible. Remote collaborative CAD design using high-definition streaming to exchange design data is a technical reality. Cinema-quality advertising can be displayed in shopping malls and at points of sale, with the content streamed to the display device from a central server. Live concerts or offBroadway theatre can be broadcast worldwide, in high enough resolution to recreate the feeling of actually being present. Outdoor advertising signs and electronic billboards are now available at new, lower prices. Film crews shooting on location can now relay the day s rushes to the producers, who may be in Hollywood. This gives producers the option of leaving the crew on location for another day, if more footage is required, rather than what happens now. Today, if there is a need to reshoot on location, the entire crew and all sets and props must be brought back to the location, at great expense, after the bulk of filming has completed. Often, the talent has already moved on to other projects, or in extreme cases, died, making reshooting even more difficult. With high-definition screening, informed decisions about whether or not to strike a set can be made overnight by decision makers located far away from the location set. Indeed, non-linear editing technology makes it possible to see the day s rushes in the context of other material already shot, with rapid turnaround. High-definition streaming over broadband connections could allow better remote medical diagnosis, with world experts able to view patients in great detail, wherever they happen to be located. There are some legal issues relating to the use of compression technology in medical imaging, but if live high-resolution video were to be accompanied by super-high-resolution, uncompressed still images, such as those that can be obtained with the latest 16-mega-pixel imaging devices, these problems ought to be obviated, in principle at least. Instantaneous streaming of high-resolution video could be invaluable evidence in convicting felons, caught in the act, by surveillance cameras. Today, images of crime scenes like those issued on crime television programs, which ask for the public s help in identifying offenders, suffer
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