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STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
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In their 1992 study, Fama and French never use the words growth stock, value stock, undervalued, or overvalued. Conversely, Dr. Robert Haugen uses these words often in his book, The New Finance: the Case Against Efficient Markets. He uses the F&F study as the basis for much of his criticism of MPT. He equates stocks with high BE/ME ratios or high E/P ratios to value stocks, and low BE/ME ratios or low E/P ratios to growth stocks. He presents the typical behavioral finance arguments to suggest that fallible human participants in inefficient markets are guilty of being overly optimistic about profit levels for growth firms for periods far into the future, causing growth stocks to be overvalued. Likewise, market participants tend to be too pessimistic about the prospects for the stocks of recently unsuccessful firms that have low growth rates and small net operating profit margins. These stocks become value stocks and are undervalued in the stock market. In the long run, the returns on growth stocks drift downward to the average market return, and the returns on value stocks float upward to the average, reverting to the mean. Although the results did not please them, Fama and French uncovered a good way to optimize the expected returns from investing in stock. Robert Haugen makes some strong arguments to follow the recommendations implied by the F&F study purchase undervalued stocks and sell overvalued stocks. This is the investment approach that we advocate.
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Even if some anomalies exist, we believe that the U.S. capital markets are reasonably efficient. Stock prices react quickly to new information, and it is very difficult for an investor to beat consistently the investment returns associated with a buy-and-hold strategy. Opportunities that produce excess returns still exist, such as investing in low P/E or high book-value-to-market-value stocks. We love to take advantage of these opportunities. However, following this strategy is not always for the faint of heart, particularly if the ratio is attractive because of a recent decline in stock price due to an accounting scandal (Enron or WorldCom) or corporate governance fiasco (Adelphia). A stock s price can go to zero, and bankruptcy proceedings frequently leave stockholders with worthless stock certificates suitable only for the recycling bin.
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We use the results of our own fundamental research of a stock, such as its book-to-market value and price-earnings ratios, as an initial signal to attract us to a company the stock of which may be undervalued or overvalued. We run the company through our valuation model and determine its intrinsic stock value. If the intrinsic value is greater than the stock s price, and the value/price ratio is greater than 1.0, the stock is undervalued and a buying opportunity may exist. If intrinsic value is less than the stock s price and the value/price ratio is less than 1.0, the stock is overvalued and we would sell it or avoid buying it. We then assess the cause of the favorable value/price relationship. If the cause of the positive ratio is due to extreme financial distress, we would not purchase the stock. If the cause is due to a temporary problem or concern, it may be a buying opportunity. Once we re comfortable that the company will remain viable, we then determine if the value/price relationship indicates a purchase. If the odds are in our favor, we pull the trigger and buy!
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Principle 3: Rational Investors Are Risk Averse
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Risk aversion means that a rational investor prefers less risk to more risk. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. This common expression along with, A safe dollar is worth more than a risky dollar, reflects risk aversion. Finance theory is based upon the assumption that investors exhibit risk-averse behavior. To a risk-averse investor, the pain of losing a dollar is greater than the pleasure of winning a dollar. A risk-averse investor does not avoid risk at all cost. She may gamble with small percentages of her wealth in hopes of attaining a significant but unlikely payoff. She can make the occasional trip to Las Vegas or Atlantic City and feed the quarter slot machines or take a seat at the two-dollar blackjack table. She also may participate in the Power Ball lottery in hopes of striking it big, even though she knows that the odds are greatly against her. With a small portion of her assets, she even may have purchased Internet stocks at their height in hopes of latching onto the next Microsoft or Dell. For the principle of risk aversion to hold, it s not necessary for all investors to make intelligent risk/return decisions at all times only
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