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STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
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EXHIBIT 2-5
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Return/Risk Bell Curve for Stock of ABC versus XYZ
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when they are deciding how to invest a significant amount of their assets. Let s assume that an investor has decided to buy one of the following two hypothetical stocks: stock ABC that has an expected return of 10 percent, and a risk measure the standard deviation of return of 10 percent, or stock XYZ that has an expected return of 10 percent, and a standard deviation of 20 percent. (See Exhibit 2-5.) Both stocks have the same expected return of 10 percent. The dispersion of the returns of stock ABC is much more concentrated around the average, and the probability of ABC s return being closer to the average return is much higher than the returns for stock XYZ. A riskaverse investor, given the symmetric nature of the returns, would always prefer to buy stock ABC because of the lower risk associated with the same expected return. What does risk aversion mean in real life Risk averse investors approach investments with caution. When they value an investment, they use conservative assumptions and try to determine what is the most likely outcome. They examine the downside and ask a lot of what if questions. If the odds don t appear to be in their favor, they don t invest.
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Risk Aversion: Our Recommendation
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Risk aversion is a good thing we are very risk averse we enjoy winning money but we really despise losing it. It s important that you re-
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The 10 Principles of Finance and How to Use Them
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alize what type of investor you are and how much risk you can stomach in the way of investment losses. Make sure that you understand the risks involved in the asset in which you are investing. If the odds aren t in your favor or the extra return isn t sufficient to compensate you for the additional risk, take a pass and find an investment with more favorable risk/return characteristics. We always require an expected margin of safety before buying a stock. We recommend that you do likewise.
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Principle 4: Supply and Demand Drive Stock Prices in the Short Run
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The stock market performs like all markets in a competitive economy. The market price of a stock is determined by the interaction of the supply of stock by sellers and the demand for stock by buyers. Current price is where the supply of stock intersects with the demand for stock. On the demand side, a substantial reduction in transaction costs helped to fuel the bull market of the 1990s. Lower costs greatly increased demand for stocks, thereby driving up prices. Investors, who during the 1980s had to pay a full-service broker several hundred dollars in commissions to buy 100 shares of Microsoft, can now buy 1000 shares for an $8 Internet brokerage fee. These low costs make it possible for day-traders to buy and sell stocks and garner substantial net profits from small moves in a stock s price. Additionally, the price performance of Internet stocks in the late 1990s spurred an almost insatiable demand by investors for stock of companies in the Internet space. This excess demand drove price-tosales (P/S) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios to levels that were unprecedented in the history of the U.S. stock markets. On the supply side during the Internet heyday, investment bankers and corporate issuers moved quickly to create new companies that could sell initial public offerings (IPOs) to investors to help satisfy demand. Supply during the Internet bubble followed demand with a slight lag. The performance of Internet IPOs in the late 1990s was extraordinary V.A. Linux Systems soared 733 percent on the day it was issued. FreeMarkets, Webmethods, Akamai, and CacheFlow all had first-day closing prices over 400 percent above their IPO offering prices. CEOs
STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
of Internet companies didn t worry about revenues, products or employees. As long as they had catchy business models and Internet stock analyst Henry Blodget s or Mary Meeker s endorsements, they would be billionaires the minute the IPO was priced. Rest assured, if investor demand for the stock of a type of company exists, investment bankers will team with entrepreneurs to create the companies to fill the demand. Eventually, supply will exceed demand. When that occurs, demand and price inevitably fall.
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