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STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
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that, between the NASDAQ high in March of 2000 and April 4, 2001, the Pro-Funds Ultra OTC Fund incurred a drop of 94.71 percent. So if Jim had an investment of \$1000 in the Ultra OTC Fund in March of 2000, 13 months later it would have dropped to \$52.90.6 A turnaround occurred between April 4, 2001 and May 2, 2001, and the Ultra OTC Fund rose an enormous 95.6 percent. Jim s \$52.90 investment increased by 95.6 percent to \$103.50 still down 89.65 percent below its March, 2000 high. The average return for these two unequal time periods is: ( 94.71 percent 95.6 percent) / 2 0.45 percent. The true return for Jim s 15-month holding period is 89.65 percent. In this example, we would guess that the difference in the calculation of average and actual returns qualifies as insidious. The following equation yields the percentage gain required to make an investment whole again after suffering a loss: Percentage Gain to Break Even 1 / (100% % drop)
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In Jim s example above, the equation looks like this: 1 / (100% 94.71%) 1 / (.0529) 1890%
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The likelihood of Jim s ever breaking even on this investment appears somewhat remote.
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We strongly believe that investment advisers and fund managers should measure their performance by using compound (geometric) averages rather than simple averages. Compound returns tell you what s really happening to your money. If you are analyzing the performance of fund managers or mutual funds, we suggest that you make sure that they provide you with compound returns or the raw underlying yearly returns so that you can calculate the compound average returns. Otherwise, the historic returns they are touting could be overstated perhaps grossly overstated.
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Transaction costs and the effects of taxes and inflation can greatly reduce the real returns on your investments. Transaction cost comes in
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