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STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
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that, between the NASDAQ high in March of 2000 and April 4, 2001, the Pro-Funds Ultra OTC Fund incurred a drop of 94.71 percent. So if Jim had an investment of $1000 in the Ultra OTC Fund in March of 2000, 13 months later it would have dropped to $52.90.6 A turnaround occurred between April 4, 2001 and May 2, 2001, and the Ultra OTC Fund rose an enormous 95.6 percent. Jim s $52.90 investment increased by 95.6 percent to $103.50 still down 89.65 percent below its March, 2000 high. The average return for these two unequal time periods is: ( 94.71 percent 95.6 percent) / 2 0.45 percent. The true return for Jim s 15-month holding period is 89.65 percent. In this example, we would guess that the difference in the calculation of average and actual returns qualifies as insidious. The following equation yields the percentage gain required to make an investment whole again after suffering a loss: Percentage Gain to Break Even 1 / (100% % drop)
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In Jim s example above, the equation looks like this: 1 / (100% 94.71%) 1 / (.0529) 1890%
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The likelihood of Jim s ever breaking even on this investment appears somewhat remote.
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Analyzing Performance: Our Recommendation
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We strongly believe that investment advisers and fund managers should measure their performance by using compound (geometric) averages rather than simple averages. Compound returns tell you what s really happening to your money. If you are analyzing the performance of fund managers or mutual funds, we suggest that you make sure that they provide you with compound returns or the raw underlying yearly returns so that you can calculate the compound average returns. Otherwise, the historic returns they are touting could be overstated perhaps grossly overstated.
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Principle 6: Transaction Costs, Taxes, and Inflation Are Your Enemies
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Transaction costs and the effects of taxes and inflation can greatly reduce the real returns on your investments. Transaction cost comes in
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many forms: brokerage commissions when you execute a trade; sales loads, 12b-1 fees, and redemption fees when you purchase or sell a mutual fund; and yearly asset management fees paid to a mutual fund, stockbroker, or investment adviser. Transaction costs can significantly decrease the returns on your investment portfolio. It should be every investor s mission to reduce her transaction costs to the lowest possible level. A stockbroker or financial planner can tell you what stocks to buy, how to allocate your investments among asset classes, and how to make your investment program tax efficient. If you benefit from his advice and services, be prepared to pay a reasonable commission or fee. However, if you purchase a mutual fund and pay a 5.25-percent commission to an investment advisor, you have wasted a huge chunk of your money. You have paid far too much for handholding. You can purchase a similarly managed no-load fund with no sales charge. If you make your own investment and asset allocation decisions, you should search for the lowest brokerage fees or investment management charges available from reputable financial institutions. We own individual stocks. When we buy a stock based on our own analysis, we execute the trade through a well-known online broker at a low fixed fee. When we purchase a stock based on a recommendation from a full-service broker, we execute the trade through his firm at a negotiated fixed commission. We own no-load domestic index funds and international stock mutual funds, no-load REIT funds, and no-load intermediate bond funds. We also invest in a hedge fund with a very specialized market niche and pay the manager of the hedge fund a substantial management fee for his expertise. We understand the difference in experience, services provided, and fees charged, and are willing to pay for performance. However, we despise paying any unnecessary costs. You should also. Make it your goal to minimize transactions costs! Taxes and inflation are also enemies. Exhibit 2-6 shows the longterm effect of taxes and inflation on investment returns for common stocks, long-term government bonds, Treasury bills, and municipal bonds over 1926-1999. The results are dramatic. Common stocks provided a 5.0 percent compounded annual return after taxes and inflation. However, taxes and inflation wiped out the returns on Government bonds and Treasury bills. Given their exemption from federal
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