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Preface
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calculate and estimate, long-hand, a company s free cash flow and cost of capital these are the essential ingredients of stock valuation. In 7 we show you how and where to get the information that you need for serious valuations. In 8 we value Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Berkshire Hathaway, and Washington REIT. This book will help you to learn a lot about valuing stock even if spreadsheets and computers are too intimidating for your personal tastes. Our goal is to teach you about stock valuation by using a simple and powerful valuation model. This book will make you a better informed, more intelligent, more profitable investor and will help you to understand why stocks such as Cisco trade at $14.45 and Berkshire Hathaway trades at $72,000 per share. Our valuation approach revolves around some very simple calculations that use only addition, subtraction, multiplication and division no calculus, differential equations, or advanced math. So let s begin by taking our initial plunge into stock valuation. Good luck, tight lines, and happy valuations! Gary Gray Patrick J. Cusatis J. Randall Woolridge
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Acknowledgments
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The original Streetsmart Guide to Valuing a Stock was conceived and outlined on a trip to Spain. The concepts underlying stock valuation crystallized only as real livestock (6 fighting bulls and 8 steers) attempted to run over us on the narrow, crowded streets of Pamplona. Integral to the book s progress were the discussions, over many fine meals with our friends in Navarra, of its structure and international appeal. Ana Vizcay and Eduardo Iriso, Mar a Jesus Ruiz Ciord a and Emilio Goicoechea, Luis Arguelles and Merche Amezgaray, Jos Mar Marco and Carmela Garraleta, Fefa Vizcay and H ctor Ortiz, and Manolo Asiain: We thank you for your hospitality and friendship over the years. Many readers reviewed various parts of the book. We d like to thank finance Professor Russ Ezzell and management Professor Charles Snow for peer review and helpful suggestions, and Blake Hallinan for his research efforts. We d also like to thank merchant bankers Scott Perper of Wachovia Capital Partners and Rusty Lewis of Verisign; derivatives specialists Patrick Mooney of Calibre Capital, Mark Hattier of Newman Financial Services, and Dave Eckhart of IMAGE; invest-
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Copyright 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Click Here for Terms of Use.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
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ment bankers Gerry Fallon (retired) and Buck Landry of Morgan Keegan; securities law expert Steve Huff of Kutak Rock; Web masters Joe and Jen Cusatis of Intelligent Data Management; and noted Washington bureaucrat David Seltzer, for their professional and careful review and assistance. Especially helpful to us were the review and comments from our friends from investment clubs and the general investing public Lassie MacDonald, Ann Barton, Sarah Ezzell, Barbara Snow, and John Nichols. The input of the members of the Spruce Creek Rod & Investment Club is appreciated. Those members include: John Wilson, Nick Rozsman, Manny Puello, Rick Simonsen, Kevin Dunphy, Constantin Nelson, Charlie Barkman, Bill Cusatis, Gary Evans, Dean Nelson and the late Uncle Bob. As always, the input of the members of the Aspen Ski Institute has always been helpful. Those members include: John H. Foote V, Tom Carroll, Bob Jones, Alec Arader and Bill McLucas, among others. Many thanks to all of the professionals at McGraw-Hill who brought this book to publication, particularly: Stephen Isaacs, acquisition editor; Sally Glover, senior editing supervisor; and Ruth Mannino, production supervisor. A special thank you to Deb Cusatis and Katie O Toole, whose writing and editing skills are greatly appreciated.
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CHAPTER
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Introduction and Overview
Financial Flameout
Even the creations of brilliant rocket scientists sometime flame out of control. The financial equivalent of incineration occurred during September 1998, at Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), a multibillion-dollar hedge fund1 that was owned by some of Wall Street s greatest intellects. After several years of spectacular returns (43 percent in 1995, 41 percent in 1996, and 17 percent in 1997) for its owners and investors, LTCM suffered a massive collapse and was rescued from bankruptcy by a consortium of its creditors. Ironically, in 1997 two of LTCM s general partners shared the Nobel Prize in Economics for their breakthrough academic research relating to risk management techniques and the valuation and pricing of stock options. The writings of Dr. Robert C. Merton and Dr. Myron Scholes laid the groundwork for the creation and growth of the financial derivatives (options, forwards, and swaps) markets. Scholes collaborated with the late Fischer Black in developing the famous BlackScholes Option Pricing Model.
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