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Uncle Larry s $100 Gift
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Present Value Discount Factors
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Year (n) 0 1 2 3 4 5
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1.0000 0.9434 0.8890 0.8396 0.7921 0.7473
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1.0000 0.9259 0.8573 0.7938 0.7350 0.6806
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1.0000 0.9091 0.8264 0.7513 0.6830 0.6209
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The 10 Principles of Finance and How to Use Them
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future payment is worth less today. For example, if Uncle Larry pays today, it doesn t matter what the discount rate is the value is $100. If Uncle Larry s health risk increases to the 10-percent level and you do not expect the $100 for five years, the present value factor is where row n 5, intersects with column r 10 percent equal to 0.6269. The $100 promise is worth $62.69 today. Likewise, as the discounting rate, r, increases, the present value discount factor decreases meaning that the future payment is worth even less today. If time to payment increases or risk increases, the present value of an investment decreases. The equation for a discount factor for the payment of $1 to be received n years from now with a discounting rate of r is: Discount Factor 1/(1 r)^n 3. The num0.7938 just
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Let s see what happens when r 8 percent, and n ber 1/(1 .08) .9259. And (.9259) * (.9259) * (.9259) as Uncle Larry s present value factor table promised.
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If you are serious about investing, it is essential that you understand how to value stocks and bonds properly. This requires that you know the basics regarding the time value of money the math underlying compounding and discounting. The math is not difficult but does require you to understand the relationship between present and future values, how to use exponents, and how to compound to future value and discount to present value. Inexpensive calculators have built-in financial programs that quickly churn out future and present values. We strongly recommend that you take the time necessary to understand compounding and discounting and learn how to use a financial calculator for those functions.
Principle 8: Asset Allocation Is a Very Important Decision
It s important to examine your assets and investment policy periodically to determine the best way to invest to meet your life s goals putting children through college, taking vacation trips to foreign countries, earning a pilot s license, learning how to hang glide, or owning a home in Key West for the winter and a ranch on the Madison River
STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
for the summer. Along with your goals, you may also have some constraints, such as liquidity needs, tax considerations, or unique health concerns. In short order, the volatile markets of the new millennium have demonstrated some valuable lessons about risk and return in managing a portfolio of assets. Modern finance theory teaches us that if we are to achieve the highest level of return for the amount of risk we can stomach, we should diversify our investment holdings over an array of asset classes. The diversification process begins with asset allocation dividing investment funds among different asset classes. The most basic classes are cash and short maturity deposits, bonds and fixed income securities, and common stock. Conservative investors tend to put more of their funds in cash and fixed income securities, while more aggressive investors will have a larger portion of their wealth invested in common stock. Within the asset classes are subclasses. Bonds include subclasses related to security type (Treasury, corporate, municipal, and foreign) and maturity (short-term, medium-term, and long-term). For common stock, there are many different subclasses. The most general relate to market value: large cap over $5 billion, mid cap $1 to $5 billion, and small cap under $1 billion; and investment style value versus growth. The trade-off of risk and return that we discuss in Principle 1 also applies to asset classes, as illustrated in Exhibit 2-7 below. Fixed income asset classes have less risk (as measured by the standard deviation of returns) and provide lower expected returns than equity asset classes. Among equity asset classes, large cap stocks tend to be less risky than small cap stocks, and value stocks generally tend to be less risky than growth stocks. International equities over time have exhibited greater risk and return than domestic stocks.
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