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If you are young and intend to work for a number of years, in all probability your biggest asset is your human capital the ability to earn income by selling your skills or labor. A large portion of the cash flow that will finance your lifestyle and enable you to purchase investments will come from your job. Since the goal of diversification is to reduce the downside risk of your asset base, you should avoid investing in the stock of the company for which you work. Also avoid investing in companies in related industries. For instance, if you work in the relatively volatile financial industry for an investment bank such as Merrill Lynch, you shouldn t invest a large portion of your assets in the stock of Goldman Sachs. From a risk perspective, it usually is a bad idea for an employee to sink a significant portion of his investment portfolio in the stock of his employer, whether in a retirement account or through holdings in other accounts. We felt the pain for what happened to employees-pen-
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sioners-shareholders of Enron. Employers often make it financially attractive for employees to purchase shares of the company, sometimes at a steep discount. If the discount is significant enough, purchase the stock; but at your earliest opportunity, liquidate the shares and deploy the money into other assets. Likewise, many American families, especially younger families, have a large percentage of their wealth tied up in a house. If you live in an area that is dependent upon one industry, such as high-tech in Silicon Valley, the entertainment industry in Los Angeles, or the finance industry in New York, avoid investing a large portion of your financial assets in that industry. You don t want an economic event that crushes your investments also to negatively affect the value of your house, giving you a double dose of pain. If you are employed by a dominant company in your area, have a large investment in a home, and also have money invested in your employer s stock, a corporate-specific downturn could be catastrophic. Your net worth could take a triple whammy the loss of your job, a steep drop in your investment and retirement accounts, and the collapsing value of your home. For instance, Adelphia s woes are triply troubling for employees who live in the small rural town of Coudersport, Pennsylvania, where the company is headquartered. For a first shot at diversification, try to separate your career assets from your investment assets. Also, don t overinvest in a house if its value is closely tied to the well being of your employer.
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We assume that you have enough liquid assets to finance six months of expenses and some unforeseen emergencies, and that you have insurance coverage to cover tragedies. In Principle 8, we note that the diversification process begins with asset allocation. Spreading your funds over alternative asset classes reduces the overall risk of your portfolio. We now want to go one step further and get a better understanding of diversification and risk. The key to diversification and risk reduction is the correlation of the returns of your assets. Correlation is a statistic which measures the degree to which the movements of two variables are related. Correlation is measured on a scale of 1.0 to 1.0. If two stocks have a correlation coefficient of 1.0, then when one stock is up 10 percent, the other stock is also up 10 percent. Conversely, a correlation coefficient
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of 1.0 means that when one stock is up, the other stock is down. A correlation coefficient of 0.0 indicates no meaningful relationship between the two assets. Assets that are highly correlated offer less risk reduction from diversification than assets that are less correlated. Coke and Pepsi are examples of two individual stocks that are highly correlated. These two companies benefit and suffer from many of the same macro-economic forces. An oil company and an airline company may experience negative correlation. As oil prices go up the oil company benefits through increasing revenues, while the airline suffers because of fuel price increases and higher operating costs. It is important to consider the correlation of assets when constructing a portfolio. Achieving the highest return for each level of risk is known as investing efficiently investing on the efficient frontier. Efficient frontiers are portfolios that are designed with the help of computer modeling and are beyond the scope of this book. This type of investing is normally accomplished by investing in different asset classes. The most general asset classes for stocks are value and growth stocks, and large and small capitalization stocks. If you have decided to increase your expected return on your assets by investing a portion of your portfolio in common stock, how should you diversify to reduce your risk Stockholders face two types of risk: systematic risk and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk represents the risk of the stock market. Changes in stock prices are caused by changes in the economy, taxes, and other market factors. When these factors change, it affects the entire market. Although systematic changes in the market affect each stock to a different degree, all stocks are impacted. As discussed in Principle 1, we measure the systematic or market risk of a stock by its beta. Unsystematic risk is specific to a company. It is risk inherent to a particular stock due to decisions made by a corporation relative to the industry in which it operates. While unsystematic risk is unique for all firms, it can be similar for firms in related industries. Total Risk Systematic Risk Unsystematic Risk
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Diversification reduces the unsystematic risk of a portfolio. Remember that on average, the negative stock-specific surprises affecting companies in a diversified portfolio will be offset by positive surprises.
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