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STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
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If you are to achieve the highest level of return for the amount of risk you can tolerate, diversify our investment holdings over an array of assets classes. The diversification process begins with asset allocation dividing investment funds among different asset classes. You must decide your desired asset allocation and in what asset classes you want to focus. Your allocation will be a function of your risk/return profile how much risk you can stomach when it comes to volatility and potential losses in your stock allocation. Diversification means to spread your wealth among a number of different investments. The goal of diversification is to invest in a group of assets that provides you with the best return possible given a level of risk. Diversification reduces the unsystematic risk of a portfolio. Remember that on average, the negative stock-specific surprises affecting companies in a diversified portfolio will be offset by positive surprises. Most studies suggest that 20 to 25 stocks are sufficient for adequate diversification. It does, however, require that stocks within a portfolio be selected from different industries to reduce the correlation among the assets. The Capital Asset Pricing Model is a simple model that estimates the rate of return that an investor expects to receive on a risky asset. In valuation, its principal purpose is to determine the discount rate to use when valuing a stock. CAPM states that the expected return of a risky asset, E(Ri), such as a common stock, is equal to the return on the risk-free asset (Rf ) plus a risk premium. We use the cost of equity capital calculated by the Capital Asset Pricing Model as an input for our discounted cash flow stock valuation model. It is a very simple yet powerful way to estimate the cost of equity, which is usually the most significant component of a company s weighted cost of capital. That s it for finance theory. Now we show you how to use the 10 principles to value a stock.
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1. See Ibbotson Associates, The Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation 2002 Yearbook, Chicago, 2002. 2. An event study examines the movement of stock prices for a certain number of days prior to an event, such as an earnings announcement, until a certain number of days after the event. The
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The 10 Principles of Finance and How to Use Them
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goal is to understand and capture any unusual stock price reaction to the event and to determine how quickly and completely the market reacts. The stock returns typically are adjusted for the general movement of prices in the stock market. 3. See Robert A. Haugen, The New Finance: The Case Against Efficient Markets, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1999; Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, Broadway Books, New York, NY, 2000; and Werner DeBondt and Richard H. Thaler. Does the Stock Market Overreact, Journal of Finance, 40 (3) (1985): 793 805. 4. Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French. The Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns, Journal of Finance, 47 (1992): 427 466. 5. See Karen Damato, Doing the Math: Tech Investors Road to Recovery is Long, Wall Street Journal, Friday, May 1, 2001, Page C1. 6. Ibid. 7. Gary P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower, Determinants of Portfolio Performance, Financial Analysts Journal, (July/August 1986). And, Gary P. Brinson, Brian D. Singer, and Gilbert L. Beebower, Determinants of Portfolio Performance II: An Update, Financial Analysts Journal, (May/June 1991). 8. Meir Statman, How Many Stocks Make a Diversified Portfolio Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 22 (September 1987), pp. 353 64.
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3 Stock Valuation:
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CHAPTER
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Some Preliminaries
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Introduction to Valuation
On July 29, 2002, in the midst of an ugly three-year bear market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 447 points. This performance capped a 1009-point rally that marked the Dow s best four-day percentage gain (13 percent) since 1933 and the largest four-day point gain in history. The rally followed a dismal early July, during which prices fell 1400 points, including a 324-point loss on July 5th and a 390point loss on July 19th. The steep jolts and jumps associated with stock prices alarmed market veterans and newcomers alike. Risk-embracing investors, thrilled by the volatility associated with the upward trajectory of the market during the euphoric 1990s, turned risk averse and suffered through a death spiral of stock prices after the bubble burst. Since the turn of the twenty-first century, business news has been bleak. The terrorist attacks of 9/11 crushed the general level of stock prices. Accounting scams at Enron and WorldCom prompted legislative hearings with circuslike atmospheres in Washington. Former
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