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Copyright 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Click Here for Terms of Use.
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CEOs and CFOs, such as 78-year old John Rigas of Adelphia, Dennis Kozlowski of Tyco, and WorldCom s Scott Sullivan, were handcuffed and carted off to jail for corporate fraud and mismanagement. Insider trading scandals, such as the sale of shares of Imclone by Sam Waskal and superstar stylist Martha Stewart, created drama more compelling than the afternoon soaps. With the stock market on a bungee cord, you need to empower yourself with knowledge, information, and a rational investment program to survive. You also need to measure properly the risks and rewards of investing in stocks. You don t want to be the jumper whose cord is too long and gets smashed because he severely misjudged stock valuation levels. Before taking the plunge, some of the questions you might want to ask are the following: Do underlying economic conditions justify the high current level of stock price volatility Has the stock market become a vicarious thrill for those who aren t drunk enough to run with the bulls Has the random throw of darts become investors preferred approach for choosing stocks Most importantly, now that you ve seen that stock prices go down quicker than they go up, you may want to find out how much a stock is really worth before investing your hardearned money. Chances are, you already know that the company s growth rate, earnings, and interest rates influence a stock s price. But you might not understand how all of these factors are interrelated. You may be wondering: How does the market come up with a stock s price What s driving today s stock market valuations Why does a stock s price react so violently to small quarterly earnings surprises Why and how do interest rate changes affect a stock s value And how can you make money by reading this book We answer these questions, introduce you to an easy-to-use approach for stock valuation, and teach you how to value common stock without pain, anxiety, or astrology.
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Before investing in the stock of a company, do some research! Do you understand the company s business What is the growth potential of the industry in which the company operates, and how is the company positioned Who are its competitors What is the quality and stability of the company s management Let s assume that you ve answered these questions to your satisfaction. How does this book help you What this book and the ValuePro 2002 software give you are the tools and the guidance that you need to estimate the intrinsic value of a stock. If you like the company, its products, and prospects, you can use our valuation approach to help you decide if the company is undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued. Stock of even the best-managed company is a poor investment if its price is too high. Your investment decision should be based solely on price versus value. If your analysis shows that a stock is greatly undervalued take the plunge and buy! If it s overvalued, you can sell the stock if you own it; you can sell the stock short (if you are a market pro and know what you re doing); or you can patiently follow its price and acquire it when and if it moves into a more attractive price range. The DCF approach empowers you with the information that you need to buy and sell carefully.
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The value of a financial investment (stock, bond, mortgage, money market account, etc.) equals the present value of its expected future cash flows, discounted (reduced) for the risk and timing of those cash flows. This basic relationship underlies the theory of finance. It s so basic and important that it warrants more description and some valuation-related definitions. Expected cash flows are the most likely cash payments (dividends, interest, capital appreciation) that you can expect (not hope) to receive from a stock or investment that you own, or moneys that you are expected to pay under a debt that you owe, such as a loan or a mortgage. To discount means to multiply a number by less than one. The discount rate that you should use in any valuation depends upon the tim-
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