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Merton, along with Dr. Zvi Bodie, coauthored the excellent college textbook, Finance, published in 1997. The text is structured around three analytical pillars of finance the time value of money, the valuation of assets, and the management of risk. At the foundation of these pillars are the basic principles, rules and theories of finance that should guide investors to make intelligent financial decisions. LTCM apparently did not practice properly the risk management strategies that its Nobel Laureates carefully formulated. Nor did LTCM adhere to the financial principles that Bodie and Merton articulated so well in Finance. The collapse of LTCM is evidence that even very smart people sometimes employ questionable investment strategies. It also shows that the financial marketplace exacts a heavy toll on those who stray too far from shore. We all can learn from the mistakes of LTCM as well as from more recent examples of carnage WorldCom, Xerox, Adelphia, Tyco, and Enron among others in corporate finance and the stock market.
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The long bull market of the 1990s spoiled investors and made us overconfident in our stock picking abilities. We did not understand risk. Now that the bubble has burst and we have seen that the stock market moves in more than one direction, we realize that it s not easy to be a successful investor, to beat the averages, or to outperform the indices consistently. The stock market was manic during the late 1990s. Exhibit 1-1 shows the blastoff and then the plummet of the stock market averages over the past five years. When the stock market soars, cocktail party chatter centers on hot tips and inside information. As Martha Stewart can attest, that information is sometimes true and in the end, incredibly costly! Stock market touts hype dozens of once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. Every business day on CNNfn and CNBC, promoters and analysts push the current new, new thing the next Starbucks or Krispy Kreme. Beware, place a hand on your wallet, and hold on! The hype associated with former hot stocks (such as Internet Capital Group once at $200.94 at $0.36 at the end of 2002, Corning down from a high of $75 to $3.31 per share, and JDS Uniphase once at $140.50, now $2.47) propelled their prices to such high levels that they were grossly overvalued. As an ex-
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ample, look at Exhibit 1-2 to see the five-year performance of the stock of ICGE. The prices of many stocks during the late 1990s defied the laws of gravity. It s important that you understand that what goes up without reason eventually must come down. At one point in 2000, the market equity (shares outstanding times stock price) of ICGE was more than $50 billion, even though its book value was negative, and JDSU had a
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market equity of over $200 billion more than 200 times its revenue. Even if God were the CEO of these companies, they could never have generated profits from operations sufficient to support their lofty stock price levels. Don t be fooled by Jack the Promoter praising a stock, a sector, an industry, or the market in general. Jack is paid to put a positive spin on a story and sell his optimistic tales to the masses. You must educate yourself so that you can ignore Jack and make your own informed decisions. You decide which stocks are undervalued or overvalued and whether to buy or sell. No one should do it for you unless you have hired him or her to manage your assets. If you are unwilling to invest the time and energy necessary to understand the stock market and stock valuation, keep your money in a conservative savings account or in a no-load stock index fund.