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STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
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The economics underlying the movements and price levels of the stock market are a mystery to most people. At the end of trading each day, stock analysts on CNNfn, CNBC, and other financial news networks attribute stock price movements to any number of factors: government reports on consumer or wholesale prices; changes in interest rates and the bond market; the increasingly bullish or bearish sentiment of investors; statements by Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan; or company earnings reports exceeding or falling short of expectations. Even more puzzling for many market players is what factors determine the absolute price of a stock. Why is the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 8,341.63 Why does McDonald s sell for $16.08 per share Is stock valuation an art, a science, or just magic In this book, we focus on the art and science of stock valuation. We contend that over time, stock prices will gravitate to their underlying intrinsic values. The valuation of common stock is no different from the valuation of any other asset. Asset valuation be it a financial, real, or human asset is a generic exercise. Today s economic value of any asset is simply the total of its cash flows that it expects to generate, discounted back to the present at a rate that reflects both the time value of money and the degree of risk or uncertainty associated with those expected cash flows. Cash flows for common stocks can come from dividends, from the sale or merger of a company, from repurchase of stock by the company (like Microsoft and Intel who have large share repurchase programs), or from the sale of the stock at market prices. The DCF valuation approach applies to all assets: financial assets such as bonds, mortgages and stock; real assets such as buildings and real estate, art and antiques, and rare coins; and human assets such as a college education and the economic value of a person s life. (Many jurisdictions use DCF valuation techniques to determine the economic value of a life in a wrongful death court case.) For financial assets with fixed payments such as bonds and mortgages, it s relatively simple to apply the DCF approach. Adapting this approach to common stocks (or an individual s life) is considerably more difficult. We address how to overcome these difficulties in the chapters that follow.
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Stock Valuation: Some Preliminaries
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Stock Valuation Approaches: Fundamental, Technical, and MPT
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Professional stock market participants practice a number of investment approaches and techniques. These philosophies range from the conservative buy-and-hold companies that you know strategy of individual investors, to the aggressive long/short, risk-neutral strategies4 employed by sophisticated hedge fund managers playing the international markets. In general terms, the different stock market investment and valuation strategies can be classified as fitting into one of three camps fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and modern portfolio theory (MPT). The three philosophies have different beliefs about the relationship between the stock prices that we observe in the markets and underlying intrinsic stock values.5 These different beliefs are summarized in Exhibit 3-4. An example of fundamental analysis is the valuation procedure that we use in this book discounted cash flow analysis. According to this
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EXHIBIT 3-4
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STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
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approach, the company s current and future operating and financial performance determine the intrinsic value of a company s stock. Fundamental analysts use other approaches to assess intrinsic value as well primarily target stock price and relative valuation which we discuss below. To assess a company s prospects, fundamental analysts evaluate overall economic, industry, and company data to estimate a stock s intrinsic value. The assumption underlying fundamental analysis is that a company s stock price over time will gravitate to its intrinsic value. Technical analysts believe that short-term stock price movements are influenced primarily by changes in market psychology the supply and demand considerations that we describe in Principle 4. True technicians are not concerned with a company s balance sheet and income statement but instead believe that stock prices reflect the greed versus fear mentality of investors. Underlying technical analysis, there is no necessary relationship between a stock s price and its underlying intrinsic value. The followers of modern portfolio theory believe that competitive forces in the stock market result in stock prices that always reflect underlying intrinsic values. In MPT terminology, the market is efficient because new information is very quickly incorporated into stock prices and there never are any undervalued or overvalued stocks. We explain some of the theories of MPT in 2.
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