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Technical analysts chart historic stock price movements, volume of trading activity, and the price/volume aspects of related equity and debt markets to predict or anticipate the stock buying behavior of other market participants. The animal spirits of other market players are more important to technical analysts than to fundamental analysts. Technical analysts believe that stock prices are influenced more by investor psychology and the emotions of the crowd than by changes in the underlying fundamentals of the company. And the actions of the crowd of investors in the stock markets are driven by fear on the downside and greed on the upside.
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Stock Valuation: Some Preliminaries
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The more famous advocates of technical analysis are Ralph Acampora of Prudential Securities, William O Neil of Investor s Business Daily, and Alan Shaw of Salomon Smith Barney. The virtues of technical analysis are featured on the Internet at Stock Charts (www. stockcharts.com/), Technical Traders (www.technicaltraders.com/), and (www.bullchart.com/). Recall Principle 4 supply and demand drive stock prices in the short run. Technical analysts focus on how market participants will behave in the near term and how stock market pessimism or optimism will affect their behavior. To a technical analyst, when a stock s price trends upward, it is not necessarily because of better operating aspects of the company, but because of increasing demand for the stock and momentum in the company s stock price. Investors who exclusively use technical analysis generally have a shorter-term stock holding orientation and more frequent trading activity than investors who employ only fundamental analysis. Many market participants use technical analytical techniques as the basis for short-term buy/sell decisions. The basic investment rule associated with technical analysis is: If your indicators signal that a stock s price will rise, buy the stock; if your indicators signal that a stock s price will fall, sell the stock.
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Efficient capital markets (discussed in Principle 2 in 2) is a cornerstone of MPT and is the belief that stock prices always reflect intrinsic value, and that any type of fundamental or technical analysis is already embedded in the stock price. Advocates of MPT tend to be finance academicians who have ultra-conservative or libertarian political views. Many teach or studied at the University of Chicago. To support this claim, they cite academic studies showing, among other things: daily stock price changes are random (the Random Walk Hypothesis); stock prices react very quickly to new company disclosures about earnings, dividend changes, and other corporate news; and that investment funds run by professional money managers (mutual and pension funds), on average, tend to underperform a buy and hold the overall stock market strategy as measured by owning an S&P 500 Index Fund. As a group, these findings suggest that investors cannot use past stock price information or public news releases of firm-specific infor-
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mation to find undervalued stocks, and that even investment fund managers, on average, cannot sleuth the market to detect undervalued stocks. An important exception to these studies is the research performed by Fama and French, and similar research by others, which we discuss in 2. These studies show that investors can consistently outperform the market by buying undervalued value stocks and selling overvalued growth stocks. MPT practitioners sometimes express disdain for technical or fundamental analysis. As such, MPT devotees tell investors not to bother to search for undervalued stocks but instead to pick a risk level that they can live with and diversify holdings among a portfolio of stocks. (See Principle 9.)
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Many professional investors will tell you that a stock s value is whatever price you can get for it on the open market nothing more, nothing less. Supply and demand determines the fair price of a stock. It s hard to argue with that declaration, but we ll give it a try. We believe that a fair price is determined by fundamental analysis resulting in a supportable intrinsic value, not by a chart-reading momentum investor that is operating according to the greater fool theory of valuation. We hate to rely on selling a stock at a ridiculous price based on the assumption that there is always an ample supply of truly foolish buyers for overpriced stock. Market players are constantly bombarded with information that may influence a stock s price, either positively or negatively. Some info is very stock specific a report of better or worse than expected earnings, the release of a dynamite new product, the death of the corporation s founder (which in a morbid way usually has a positive effect on stock prices), the settling of a labor strike, or an exciting technological or medical breakthrough. Does the stock market ever overreact or underreact to new information Absolutely! We discuss the EntreMed example in 2. The company was the subject of a very favorable article regarding its cancer research in a Sunday edition of the New York Times. The article contained no new information regarding the company; however, it did give the company
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