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Since 1990, The Wall Street Journal has tested the notion of stock market efficiency in its Investment Dartboard column. The Journal compares the six-month total return performance of four stocks, one selected by each of four different investment professionals, with the performance of four stocks picked through the random method of tossing darts at the stock listings pages of the Journal. In 1999, four different amateur investors that read the Journal were invited to participate in each contest. The final contest ended on September 11, 2002. The aggregate performance strongly supports the pros over both the darts and the amateurs. In the 147 contests over the 12-year period, the pros have beaten the darts in 90. On a relative return basis, the pros have earned an average six-month return of 9.6 percent over the period, compared to 5.1 percent for the DJIA, and 2.9 percent for the randomly selected dart stocks,7 creating a significant difference in returns. In the 35 contests since 1999 when amateurs were first invited to participate, the professionals have averaged a six-month profit of 4.7 percent, while the picks of the amateurs lost 5.4 percent, the dart stocks lost an average of 2.4 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by an average of 1.7 percent a resounding victory for Wall Street and the proponents of fundamental analysis. We believe strongly that there is value to careful stock selection and that an investor should own a diversified portfolio of common stocks. Within that portfolio, the investor should value each stock individually using the DCF technique that we describe. When a stock s price is overvalued and it exceeds its intrinsic value by more than X percent (the investor picks that percentage, e.g., 15 percent), the investor should sell that stock and replace it with another stock that is undervalued by more than X percent (e.g., 15 percent). This approach allows an investor to benefit from the diversification that is advocated by modern portfolio theory, while also making the value play that we so strongly believe in but that has confounded academicians. We also believe that in any analysis leading to a buy/sell stock decision, the investor should heed the fear and avoid the greed factors that regularly bubble through the stock market. Tax decisions often complicate the timing of purchase and sale of stock, and we do not address this complex issue in the book. Finally, no matter how good your analysis and how much you feel that a stock is undervalued, the market may not agree with you or may
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STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
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know something that you do not yet know. Our recommendation is that if you buy a stock and the price drops significantly, by 20 percent or more below your purchase price, sell it. Cut your losses and move on. Also, periodically update the valuations of your stocks. If the fundamentals of a stock have changed and the change negatively affects its intrinsic value, sell the stock if and when it gets X percent below its revised intrinsic value level.
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Valuing common stocks is a mystery to most investors. Recent extreme volatility in the stock market no doubt has added to the mystique. Indeed, many market observers insist that these gyrations support the notion that stock valuation is less art and science and more magic. This book s focus is on the art and science of stock valuation and how you can profitably use it in your investment decisions. In the pages that follow, we explain how you can apply the stock valuation principles used by professional money managers and Wall Street investment bankers to value your favorite stocks. The crucial concept we attempt to hammer home throughout this book is that the value of a stock like the value of any other financial instrument is equal to the discounted value of its expected cash flows, adjusted for risk and timing. For many investors, there are two general sources of confusion in the stock valuation process. First, how do we estimate future cash flows We clear up this question in 5. Second, what is the appropriate rate to discount uncertain cash flows We discuss this concern in 6. This book teaches you how to address these questions and use your answers to generate investment profits. Since we believe that it is helpful to know about the company in which you re considering an investment, 7 shows the what, where, and how of getting information instantaneously. 8 shows you how to use the DCF approach to value stocks such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, and Berkshire Hathaway. So let s go! If you get stuck on a term that is unfamiliar or a concept that is difficult to grasp, either reread the section or refer to the Glossary. It s now time to learn how to value a stock.
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