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Value stocks of financial companies and real estate investment trusts, such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Berkshire Hathaway, and Washington REIT; Combine stocks in an efficiently structured investment portfolio; Manage your risk; and Use the 10 principles of finance to your advantage. We keep the book simple, and we explain the concepts of modern finance using easy-to-understand examples. Our approach revolves around the same three analytical building blocks described by Professors Bodie and Merton: 1. Valuation of assets, which affects the amount or the expected rate of return (rate of returns); 2. Time value of money, which affects the timing of returns (timing); and 3. Management of risk, which affects the probability of receiving returns (risk management). Too frequently, investors have short memories and lose sight of this amount-timing-risk relationship. Greed run amok, 3 is Burton Malkiel s description of speculators who caused history s investment manias and the inevitable market collapses that followed. The boom and bust cycle occurred in Holland in the seventeenth century. During the period from 1634 to 1636, prices for tulip bulbs climbed steadily and beyond reason. Then, in the month of January, 1637, prices increased twenty-fold. In February, the market collapsed and tulip bulb prices dropped by more than the amount they gained in January. Many investors lost fortunes and drove Holland s economy into a severe and prolonged depression. Speculation ran wild in the late 1920s when stocks soared in the United States and then crashed causing the Great Depression. According to Malkiel,4 most blue-chip stocks fell over 90 percent by the time the stock market bottomed out in 1932. The same inflate-crashburn scene unfolded in the bursting of the high-tech bubble of 2000, as the NASDAQ Index fell more than 75 percent from its record high. We could quote dozens of additional examples of investment manias and the inevitable corrections that followed to show how near-
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sighted and gullible investors can be. An investor should always be skeptical when someone justifies an outrageous price for a risky asset with the phrase, this time it s different. It is never different ! In all economies, in all markets, in all time periods, the principles of investment valuation are the same. If you follow our recommendations, you won t succumb to the irrational exuberance associated with investment manias. The principles that underlie finance theory cut across and incorporate the three analytic building blocks of return-timing-risk. The 10 principles are: 1. Higher Returns Require Taking More Risk 2. Efficient Capital Markets Are Tough to Beat 3. Rational Investors Are Risk Averse 4. Supply and Demand Drive Stock Prices in the Short Run 5. When Analyzing Returns, Simple Averages Are Never Simple 6. Transaction Costs, Taxes, and Inflation Are Your Enemies 7. Time and the Value of Money Are Closely Related 8. Asset Allocation Is a Very Important Decision 9. Asset Diversification Will Reduce Risk 10. An Asset Pricing Model Should Be Used to Value Your Investments
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In 2, we examine the 10 principles of finance and lay the groundwork for all that follows. As we describe each principle, we also recommend how you can use it to make better investment decisions. The principles range from common-sense suggestions, such as minimizing transactions costs, to concepts that may be new for nonfinance types, such as understanding and using a pricing model to value a stock. In 3, we provide definitions relating to valuation, describe the stock valuation process, and introduce you to the discounted cash flow (DCF ) valuation method. We discuss the role that all investors played in inflating the high-tech bubble. We describe the different
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