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present value (NPV ) of additional investment by the corporation is zero, and no additional value is created for stockholders.1 Short-term Assets. Third, we add the firm s short-term assets to the mix. We include only real current assets that could be sold or liquidated at close to face value, such as investment securities, inventories, accounts receivable, and other current corporate financial investments. We do not include intangible assets, such as goodwill, which would be difficult to sell or value, or long-term assets such as property plant and equipment, which are essential to generating the company s cash flow from operations. Here, the current balance sheet of the firm comes into play. For example, according to its balance sheet on June 30, 2002, Microsoft had $38.6 billion in cash and excess marketable securities on its books. These assets have no business operating risk and should not be discounted in the valuation procedure. Corporate value is the sum of the discounted cash flow from operations, plus discounted corporate residual value, plus short-term assets. Corporate Value Cash Flow Operations Residual Value
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Once total corporate value is calculated, we subtract the amount of short-term liabilities and the market value of debt and preferred stock, and then divide that amount by the shares of stock outstanding to get the per share intrinsic stock value. Intrinsic Value = (Corporate Value Debt Preferred Short-term Liabilities)/Shares Outstanding Mathematically, this is as difficult as the DCF approach gets. No calculus, no differential equations just addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. And through the magic of a microprocessor, the computations occur instantaneously.
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Microsoft A Simple DCF Example
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So how complex is it to value stocks like a pro Not very! To illustrate the valuation process, we now take you through a simplified valuation of Microsoft. The four steps are: forecast expected cash flow; estimate
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the required rate of return (the WACC); discount the expected cash flow by the WACC; and calculate per share intrinsic value.
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Step 1: Forecast Microsoft s Expected Cash Flow
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Expected cash flow to shareholders includes cash dividends, if any, and the expected increase (or decrease) of the stock s price during the investor s holding period of the stock. As we show in 3, it s easy for the bank to estimate the expected cash flow from Mary s mortgage because she agrees to pay the bank exactly $734 per month. Accurate estimations of cash flow for common stock are more challenging. Here we describe ways to help you overcome the complications associated with cash flow estimation. The DCF valuation analysis that we use estimates expected free cash flow to the firm. Free cash flows are cash amounts that are available to be paid to stockholders. Earnings per share is an accounting measure and an accountant s way of measuring corporate performance. Discounted free cash flows are an investor s way of measuring potential returns to shareholders. DCF is more wallet oriented, hence more meaningful to you unless you happen to be an accountant. The discounted free cash flow approach uses corporate performance measures that focus solely on real cash dollars flowing into and out of the company. Corporate activities that produce additional net cash inflows to the company, such as increased revenue growth or increased net operating profit margins, have a positive effect on stock value. These are good activities. Corporate activities that produce net cash outflows from the company, such as higher income tax rates, higher capital investment or working capital requirements, or lower net operating profit margins due to increasing labor costs or other costs of production, have a negative effect on stock value. These payments may be necessary from the corporation s perspective but they are not particularly good activities for the stock s value. Microsoft has been a darling of Wall Street for many years. Since its initial public offering in March of 1986, Microsoft produced an average annual return of almost 50 percent per year to investors until 2000. (See Exhibit 4-2.) With the bursting of the high-tech bubble, Microsoft s return dropped into negative figures. We discuss how to estimate corporate cash flows in 5, where we focus on five cash flow measures. We refer to these cash flow
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