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Copyright 2003 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Click Here for Terms of Use.
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STREETSMART GUIDE TO VALUING A STOCK
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Naturally, many operating decisions of a company affect these cash flow measures in one way or another. Decisions relating to salaries, hiring, executive bonuses, and new suppliers affect net operating profit margins. Decisions regarding research and development expenditures, new products, and advertising campaigns affect growth rates, periods of competitive advantage, net operating profit margins, and net investment. And management choices relating to these variables occur each and every day within a large company. This chapter shows how these five cash flow measures affect the value of the corporation, and this is where the rubber really begins to meet the road. The cash flow estimation process is sometimes as tedious as toenail clipping, but it s the most important part of valuation. In the process of estimating cash flow, you learn a great deal about the company that you are valuing. Here, we study Cisco (CSCO: www. cisco.com/ ) and discuss the inputs that we use to estimate Cisco s expected cash flow.
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Growth Rates and the Excess Return Period
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When we talk about growth in the context of valuation, we re most concerned about the corporation s growth of earnings or profits. Growth in earnings is the result of either: Growth in revenues generating more cash flowing into the firm; Reduction in expenses and an increase in NOPMs resulting in less money flowing out of the firm; or A combination of increasing revenue and decreasing expenses. All else equal, corporate managers and Wall Street analysts prefer growth in revenues to be the cause of an increase in earnings. We keep the valuation process as simple as possible, at least for a first cut at valuing a stock. If we assume that the valuation inputs are held constant over time (meaning that the net operating profit margin, net investment rates, and income tax rate don t change over the excess return period), then the growth in cash flow to the firm is the same whether we apply the assumed growth rate directly to revenues, or if we change both revenue growth and NOPMs to come up with the proper growth rate in earnings. It s far simpler to use a constant rev-
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enue growth rate to replicate growth in earnings, rather than changing a combination of inputs. In the more detailed custom valuations that we perform in 8, we get fancy and change inputs over time so that growth may be captured by a combination of increasing revenues and decreasing NOPMs. For now, let s keep things simple and assume that when we discuss growth, we re applying the growth rate to the revenue of the firm. The current revenue of the corporation and the expected growth (positive or negative) of revenue during the excess return period are extremely important inputs for valuing a company. These variables act as the first step in forecasting the expected cash inflow to the corporation. The term revenue growth rate is self-explanatory. How it is estimated is a bit trickier. Where do you get growth rates Do you have to be a swami or a fortuneteller to come up with a good prediction That could be helpful, but thankfully, it is not necessary. Some Web sites such as Yahoo Finance, First Call, and Zacks have five-year expected profit or revenue growth projections. Many Wall Street brokerage firms also forecast these numbers. Finally, the corporation s recent history and trend of growth can act as a good initial indicator of potential growth.
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Just as science tells us that the universe can t expand forever, mathematics tells us that a corporation cannot forever grow at a rate appreciably higher than the growth rate of the economy in which it operates. It is impossible for a company to grow its operations every year at an unreasonably high rate of growth. Some companies, like Cisco and Tyco, maintained high growth rates during the 1990s by buying growth acquiring smaller companies at high prices and merging them into the parent company. While this did buy hyper-growth, it came at a significant cost the newly issued shares by the company to finance the purchase of the target, and the subsequent dilution of the company s shares outstanding. Characterized by high price-to-earnings and low book-value-tomarket-value ratios, growth stocks don t remain growth stocks forever. Eventually, new technologies replace the old, patent protection expires, and competitors enter the fray and cut into market share and reduce profit margins to a reasonable percentage. The promise that
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