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have been awarded options may quit or be terminated and many of the options that have been awarded may never be exercised. An option award is specific to an individual and can t be sold or assigned, meaning it is totally illiquid. The vesting consideration and lack of liquidity of ESOs render them much less valuable than most pricing models would predict.
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What we use, generally at least for our first cut at valuation, is the most recent amount of shares-outstanding number that pops up in our AOL Finance screen, as reported by S&P Comstock, or from the stock profile screen on Yahoo Finance. To our knowledge, these Web sites report the actual number of shares outstanding based on the most recent quarterly report filed by the company with the SEC. If a stock looks promising based upon our initial valuation, we examine it more closely using the diluted amount of shares outstanding as reported in the corporation s quarterly and annual report. This helps us to get a better handle on our concern regarding the firm s dilution problem. Using diluted shares outstanding produces a more conservative valuation, which is desirable when we consider an investment.
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For ConEd we use the diluted number of shares outstanding of 212.9 million shares as our input for shares outstanding. The amount of diluted and basic shares outstanding is found on ConEd s income statement, Exhibit 6-2.
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The amount of shares outstanding for a high-tech growth company such as Cisco is more problematic than for a stodgy utility, such as ConEd. During the past two decades, Cisco has propelled its growth and earnings through the purchase of companies in semirelated market sectors. Cisco has financed this buying spree through the issuance of new stock and through the generous granting of stock options. The growth of shares outstanding, on both a basic and diluted basis, has slowed considerably in the past three years, in large part due to the slump in Cisco s stock price. Still, the future diluting effect associated
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with options should be a concern for investors. We use the diluted number of shares outstanding of 7447 million, that s 7.477 BILLION shares, as shown in Exhibit 5-2. In summary, the inputs for valuing a stock relating to the cost of common equity are the current rate of return on the 10-year risk-free Treasury Bond 4.25 percent as of August 14, 2002; the company s beta (estimates of which are available from a number of sources see 7), the current estimate of the equity risk premium, Rerp using 3 percent as of August 14, 2002; and the amount of common stock outstanding using diluted shares outstanding.
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The After-Tax Cost of Debt and Debt Outstanding
The after-tax cost of debt securities represents the cost to the firm of borrowing funds at current yields in the debt markets after taking into account the tax deductibility of interest-to-finance investments for the operation of the company. It s important to use today s yields or interest rates in calculating the company s WACC, because they represent our best expectation of relative opportunity costs for providers of new capital to the company. By contrast, historic or sunk costs are associated with the coupon rates and original offering yields on outstanding debt and preferred stock issues of the company. These historic rates should not affect the corporation s investment decisions or the calculation of the corporation s WACC. Because a company s debt securities are risky investments (although not as risky as its common stock), the after-tax cost of debt primarily is a function of three variables: the current yields associated with comparable-maturity risk-free debt, the default risk associated with the specific company s debt, and the company s income tax rate.
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