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Valuing a Stock Putting It All Together
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Global Consumer provides banking, lending, investment services, and insurance to consumers and small businesses throughout the world. These products are provided by the following operating entities: Citibanking North America, Citibank Online, Mortgage Banking, North American Cards, CitiFinancial, and Primerica Financial Services. Global Corporate provides investment advice, investment banking services, and commercial banking services to corporations, governments, and institutions in over 100 countries through its Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB). It underwrites and distributes debt and equity securities for corporations and for foreign, state, governmental, and governmental-sponsored agencies. Global Investment Management and Private Banking offer a broad range of asset management, insurance, and annuity products. Traveler s Life and Annuity, Citigroup Asset Management, and Citigroup Private Bank provide these products to institutional, and high net worth retail clients. Investment Activities consist primarily of Citigroup s venture capital activities and special situations regarding Citigroup s lending activities to foreign entities. Citigroup s market equity of $182 billion makes it the number-one financial services company in the world. That market value is 12.6 times earnings of $14.8 billion. Citigroup pays an annual dividend of $0.72 per share. It actively repurchases shares in the open market and repurchased 87 million shares in 2002. Its five-year price history is shown in Exhibit 8-1. Citigroup s stock has recently been under a cloud due to concerns regarding its relationship with Enron and a series of investor suits, and state and Federal legal actions against Salomon Smith Barney relating to underwriting activities in the telecom sector. That cloud lifted on December 20, 2002, when Salomon agreed to pay $300 million in fines to the SEC and state securities regulators to settle an investigation into the behavior of some of its stock research analysts. The agreement was reached after the date of this valuation and is not reflected in the analysis, the stock price, or the intrinsic value.
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Developing the Valuation Inputs Citigroup
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No valuation is timeless. A company s intrinsic value changes as its prospects, product mix, competitive position, and product market ad-
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EXHIBIT 8-1
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just to new technologies, consumer needs, capital demands, and market psychology. It s important to incorporate the most recent available information into a valuation. The fiscal year for Citigroup ends on December 31st. The latest audited information that was publicly available at the time of this valuation is for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2001, a full year stale. In this situation it is important to look at quarterly earnings releases (which are not audited) to help to assess more recent performance of the corporation. Citigroup, on October 15, 2002, posted a third-quarter earnings release for the quarter ending September 30, 2002 on its Web site. The earnings release showed a more current picture of the corporation and was the source of much of the information incorporated in this valuation. (See Citigroup s Web site for the earnings release.)We have included Citigroup s audited 2001 income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement as Exhibits 8-2, 8-3, and 8-4, respectively. We developed our valuation inputs from information provided in the third-quarter earnings release, in Citigroup s 2001 Annual Report, and on financial Web sites. Revenues. In order of importance, the revenue sources for Citigroup are: loan interest and fees, other interest and dividends, commissions
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Citigroup 2001 Income Statement
and fees, insurance premiums, principal transactions, and asset management fees. The 2001 income statement listed $112.022 billion as the most recent annual revenue for Citigroup. Revenue Growth Rate. The historic revenue growth of Citigroup has been good, growing from $80.5 billion in 1997 to $112.0 billion in 2001 a compound annual growth rate of 8.6 percent, but the growth rate has been decelerating. Revenues were flat between 2000 and 2001, and decreased by 7.8 percent in the third quarter of 2002 when compared to the third quarter of 2001. The principal reason for lower revenue growth was due to a general drop in interest rates, a two-edge sword. Lower interest rates resulted in lower interest income, but low
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