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Citigroup 2001 Balance Sheet
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rates also drove down interest expense. Interest costs are Citigroup s most significant expense item. Citigroup s income from continuing operations before income tax increased, growing by 16.4 percent and 3.6 percent over the last two years, and 11.6 percent over the third quarter. As far as growth goes, let s see what the experts think. Zacks Investment Research gathers information from stock market analysts relating to earnings estimates and stock recommendations. Zacks looks
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at earnings-per-share growth over periods out to five years. In the DCF model, embedding growth in revenue as opposed to operating income or earnings (which are a function of revenue and NOPM), will not greatly affect a stock s intrinsic value. Zacks found consensus analyst expectations of earnings-per-share growth over the next five years for Citigroup of 14.5 percent. Of the 19 analysts who Zacks polled that cover Citigroup, 8 rated it a strong buy, 10 rated it a buy, and 1 rated it a strong sell.
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In our initial valuation scenario for Citigroup, we used the 14.5percent EPS growth assumption by the analyst s polled by Zacks. We recognize that stock analysts often are overly optimistic regarding growth rates. We understand that our initial scenario will give us a high intrinsic stock value we do not believe that a company as large as Citigroup can grow consistently at 14.5 percent per year. The growth rate is the assumption that we vary to see its effect on intrinsic value. We lowered our growth assumption in our next scenario. We assumed a downward trend in growth, reducing Citigroup s growth rate by 1 percent per year until it reached the 5 percent level. This is the level of long-term growth that we believe that Citigroup can maintain. This growth assumption is reasonable for Citigroup and should result in a realistic valuation. Finally, we looked at a third scenario that uses a flat growth rate of 5 percent, which we believe will give us a conservative valuation for Citigroup. Excess Return Period. We have discussed our 1-5-7-10, boringdecent-good-great excess return period rule that we use when we approach a valuation. It would be hard to find anyone that does not consider Citigroup a well-run, great company with great brands. We used a 10-year excess return period in our valuation. NOPM Estimate. NOPM is the second of the five Chinese brothers. To calculate NOPMs, we need to know a company s operating expenses. In order of importance, Citigroup s expenses are: interest expense, benefits, claims and credit losses, and other operating expenses. To calculate operating income for Citigroup, we took revenue from continuing operations and subtracted total expenses. To arrive at Citigroup s NOPM, we divide operating income by revenue. Over the past three fiscal years, NOPMs have been relatively steady at 19.23 percent, 18.91 percent, and 19.55 percent, for an average of 19.23 percent. It the nine months ending September 30th, Citigroup s NOPM jumped to 24.19 percent. For our baseline valuation, we used the 19.23-percent three-year average NOPM, and hope that Citigroup can continue to improve their operations as they have through the third quarter of 2002. Income Tax Rates. Provision for income taxes for Citigroup averaged 35.3 percent over the three-year period from 1999 to 2001. We used that 35.3-percent rate in our baseline valuation.
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Valuing a Stock Putting It All Together
New Investment and Depreciation. A typical manufacturing company, in order to grow its business, invests a significant portion of its revenues in plant, property, and equipment. Earlier in this chapter, we noted that financial companies invest very little in the way of PPE and have small depreciation charges. Financial companies do invest in software to develop proprietary trading and risk management systems, and often grow by acquiring businesses in similar fields. Citigroup has made significant investments over the past three years in business acquisitions $6.3 billion in 1999, $8.8 billion in 2000, and $7.1 billion in 2001. On average, Citigroup spent $7.17 billion per year or an average of 6.76 percent of revenues to acquire other businesses. Citigroup also had capital expenditures over that period that averaged about $1.9 billion per year, which were more than offset from the proceeds from sales of premises and equipment and repossessed assets. For our investment rate input, we used 6.76 percent. Citigroup had depreciation charges of $2.2, $2.6, and $2.4 billion respectively in 1999, 2000, and 2001. The depreciation rate averaged $2.4 billion per year, or 2.26 percent of yearly revenue. We used that 2.26 percent as our depreciation rate input. Incremental Working Capital. As discussed previously, working capital supports the manufacturing and service activities of nonfinancial companies. Investing in working capital is a bothersome chore for manufacturing firms. For financial companies, their principal liabilities and assets are financial claims that take the place of working capital. Therefore, for financial companies, our entry for working capital was 0. Short-Term Assets. The third quarter balance sheet of Citigroup lists total assets of $1,031 billion. Principal assets are loans, investments, trading account assets, Federal funds sold, receivables, and cash. From that total we eliminated fixed assets and assets of questionable value, such as goodwill, $22.6 billion, and intangible assets, $7.8 billion, which gave us a short-term asset entry of $1,000.6 billion. Short-Term Liabilities. Citigroup s principal liabilities are deposits, Federal funds purchased, trading account liabilities, insurance policy and claims reserves, contract holder funds, and short-term borrowings. As discussed previously, to be consistent with the treatment of interest as an operating expense for financial companies, we included
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