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When you use conservative assumptions in valuation, and the intrinsic value of a stock exceeds its price, then it s worthy of serious consideration to add to your portfolio. Based on its current price level of $37.13 and a reasonable growth rate of 5 percent, Citigroup s valuation ratio is ($47.13/$37.13) equal to 1.27. The price of Citigroup stock is low enough to warrant a purchase. The stock price is depressed because of investor concerns about how corporate defaults and bankruptcies, such as Enron, WorldCom, and United Airlines, will affect Citigroup s profits. The market is also wary of shareholder lawsuits and state and Federal fines and legal proceedings relating to Citigroup s investment banking activities for the
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telecom industry. We think those actions and concerns will be a temporary drag on profits, and the financial penalties that Citigroup eventually may pay will not significantly harm the company. At that price level, and based on our valuation assumptions at the time we valued it, Citigroup stock appeared to be a strong buy.
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Valuing Merrill Lynch December 18, 2002
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Price $40.13, Value $43.83 to $72.50, Buy General Description of Merrill Lynch a Great Securities Firm
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (MER: www.ml.com/ ) is a holding company that provides securities brokerage, financing, investment, insurance, banking and advisory services, and related products in 37 countries throughout the world. It has 53,400 employees and 14,600 financial advisors that serve clients with assets of over $1.3 trillion. Merrill Lynch is comprised of three business segments: the Global Markets and Investment Banking (GMI), Private Banking, and Merrill Lynch Investment Managers. GMI provides investment banking and financing services to corporate and institutional clients and governments in the United States and throughout the world. GMI activities include: underwriting, M&A advisory services, investment banking, trading, and corporate lending services. The Private Client Group provides services and products related to the management of wealth, including broker/dealer activities, banking, retirement planning, insurance and trust services, and mortgage lending. Brokerage activities are provided by two subsidiaries: Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith; and Merrill Lynch International. Insurance activities consist of underwriting and marketing life insurance and annuity products written by Merrill Lynch Life Insurance Company and ML Life Insurance Company of NY. Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (MLIM) has approximately $529 billion in assets under management. MLIM manufactures and offers tax-exempt and taxable fixed-income mutual funds, and equity and balanced funds. Merrill s market equity is $35.4 billion. That market value is 73 times a depressed 2001 earnings amount of $0.56 per share, but only 1.61 times book value of $25.37 per share. Merrill pays an annual dividend of $0.64 per share. Its five-year price history is shown in Exhibit 8-9. The high-tech stock market crash and the events of September 11th have negatively and significantly affected Merrill Lynch s revenues, earnings, and stock price. For the third quarter of 2002, revenues fell by almost 30 percent when compared to the third quarter of 2001. Ad-
Valuing a Stock Putting It All Together
EXHIBIT 8-9
Merrill Lynch Five-Year Stock Price Chart
ditionally, Merrill Lynch has suffered from activities relating to biased stock research, having recently settled a regulatory action for $100 million.
Developing the Valuation Inputs for Merrill Lynch
The fiscal year for Merrill Lynch ends on the last Friday in December. On October 16, 2002, Merrill posted a third-quarter earnings release on its Web site for the quarter ending September 27, 2002. We have included the audited 2001 income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement of Merrill as Exhibits 8-10, 8-11, and 8-12, respectively. We used information provided in the third-quarter earnings release, in Merrill Lynch s 2001 Annual Report, and on financial Web sites to develop our valuation inputs. Revenues. In order of importance, the revenue sources for Merrill are: interest and dividend revenues, commissions, asset management and portfolio service fees, principal transactions, and investment banking fees. According to the 2001 income statement, the most recent annual revenue for Merrill was $38.757 million. Revenue Growth Rate. The historic revenue growth of Merrill has been erratic, growing by 27 percent from $35.3 billion in 1999 to $44.8 billion in 2000, and then dropping 13.6 percent in 2001. Total revenues were down 30 percent in the third quarter of 2002 when compared to
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