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In this chapter, we put the 10 principles and all of the valuation pieces together to value the stocks of three financial companies and a real estate investment trust. When we valued Citigroup, we looked closely at the relationship between growth rates and stock value. We noted that Wall Street analysts tend to be an optimistic group and suggested that their growth estimates would be difficult to maintain over the long run. When we reduced the growth rate from the 14.5 percent predicted by analysts to 5 percent, our more conservative estimate, the intrinsic value of Citigroup was still significantly above its current market price. The value/price ratio of 1.27 was our rationale for a strong buy recommendation. When we valued Merrill Lynch, we focused on two areas of concern. At an estimated 13 percent, we believed growth estimates were too high. We also believed that the recent NOPMs of Merrill Lynch were too low, primarily due to the terrorist attacks and the bursting of the high-tech bubble. We looked at a second scenario with low growth, and a third scenario with low growth and an increased NOPM and in each case found intrinsic values for Merrill Lynch that exceeded its current $40.13 price. We believed that buying Merrill s stock was a bet on an operating turnaround, and we rated Merrill Lynch as a buy. Led by Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway is a great company. We valued it based on analysts expected growth rates of 11 percent, and found a value of $70,330. In our second scenario, when NOPMs increased to preterrorist attack levels and interest rates increased by 1 percent, Berskshire s value grew to over $80,000. And when we lowered the growth rate to 7 percent, Berkshire s value dropped to $63,000. We believed that at the current market price of $72,000, Berkshire Hathaway was properly valued, and we rated it a hold. Our final valuation was for a small-cap REIT, Washington Real Estate Investment Trust. Growth estimates for WRE were reasonable at 5.5 percent and its NOPMs have been steady. The baseline valuation for WRE had an intrinsic value of $24.04, and the stock s price was $25.55, resulting in a valuation ratio of 0.94. A valuation ratio of less than 1.0 indicates that a stock is overvalued. If interest rates rose, what would happen to WRE s stock value When we examined a scenario in which interest rates increased by one-quarter percent per year over a
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five-year period, WRE s intrinsic stock value dropped 30 percent to $16.85. Although WRE is a well-run REIT, we believed that it was overpriced at $25.55, and that its downside risk outweighed its upside potential. Therefore, we rated it a weak sell. We hope that you enjoyed this book and find it helpful in developing your own investment approach. Good luck!
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1. Aswath Damodaran, Investment Valuation, John Wiley & Sons, 1996, page 476.
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accounts payable The amount owed to suppliers for goods and services purchased on credit; payment obligations usually range between 30 and 90 days. accounts receivable The amount due from customers for goods and service sold on credit; discounts are often given for timely payment (e.g., within 10 days). alpha The rate of return on an investment in excess of the expected rate of return as forecast by a pricing model (e.g., CAPM). after-tax cost of debt The tax-adjusted cost of debt; the nominal interest rate adjusted for tax benefits of interest payments. The equation is (1 tax rate) * (nominal interest rate). arbitrage pricing model (APM) An asset pricing model that predicts expected returns on a security on the basis of a correlation between the security and multiple input variables. average-risk stock A stock with a beta equal to 1; an issue that moves with the market. bear market A long-term downward trend in security prices. Recently, this has been defined as a decline of 20 percent or more
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