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unceasingly since the end of the nineteenth century. This latest little burble is exactly that, a hiccup that resulted from too much money, not enough return on investment, and accelerated timeline expectations. Underpromise, overdeliver somehow got inverted, and the result was a financial backlash. The forward movement is far from over, however. The telecom industry is just now building up a head of steam, and corporations and countries the world over are beginning to realize the potential of telecommunications infrastructure within their future plans. So what is coming down the road ahead Here are a few of my own predictions. I read a lot of market tea leaves, so these predictions are based on a considerable amount of market awareness. However, in the words of Dennis Miller, it s just my opinion I could be wrong. The Internet s influence is far from over. In these times of cost-cutting and economic stringency, the Internet will play a key role. Business-tobusiness and business-to-consumer sales via the Internet already enable cost reductions in the neighborhood of 5 percent. Furthermore, the belief that primacy rules supreme with regard to the Internet is spurious. Those companies that took their time and proceeded slowly and carefully have prospered, while those that went in with little heed are largely gone today. Those companies that tried to become pure-play Internet companies have largely failed for the simple reason that they failed to understand what consumers were looking for: solutions and advantages. Broadband access will continue to be important. Both DSL and cable modem connections will continue to enjoy sales for the near term, but over time, fixed wireless will overshadow both of them because of its lower infrastructure cost and soon-to-be-available high-bandwidth, twoway symmetric service. In spite of the hype, 3G doesn t cut it. Third-generation (3G) wireless is a nice idea, but it is a technology looking for a problem to solve. All the bandwidth in the world doesn t do much for the consumer if no applications are available to take advantage of it. The mini-browsers that accompany many digital cell phones today are cute but frankly worthless for the most part: advertised as the wireless Internet, they re not even close. According to various studies, the average number of screens a user has to go through on a minibrowser to reach the site they re looking for is 22. Calling that the wireless Internet is a major marketing blunder; the Internet connotes speed, a large screen, color, and universal access. Until applications emerge that are specifically built around the concept of high bandwidth to the cell phone and the known limitations of a mobile device, 3G will flounder.
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Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.
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Recently, while teaching in Europe, I asked a group of 50 people what they wanted from their mobile 3G services provider. The answers were voiced almost in a capella harmony: low cost, secure communications, universal access, reasonably good signal quality, and instant messaging. No fancy Internet access, no color graphics, just solid communications capability. Europe already has this, you see. It s called Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM). Perhaps the North American service providers should pay attention. Hand-in-hand with the evolution of wireless will be a concomitant evolution in the design, deployment, and use of mobile appliances that are actually useful. They will incorporate wireless connectivity, but will be designed not to replace the PC or laptop, but rather to provide spontaneous, just-in-time connectivity to online databases. Coupled with ubiquitous connectivity and adequate bandwidth, these devices will herald the arrival of a new wave of mobility. And they will be built around the functionality that the customer wants to use, not what the technologists want to deliver. The players in the game will continue to evolve in terms of who they are and what they do. As the adolescent companies in the telecom industry grow up and become young adults, they will set aside childish things and focus on serious business. They will narrow down their business activities and focus on those that they do well and which make money. They will recognize that they will only make money if they satisfy the demands of the customer, and they will satisfy the demands of the customer if and only if they pay attention to that customer. The herd will be further culled; the numbers will drop. Those that remain will be those that have the wherewithal to change their business practices on the fly to match changing customer requirements. Consider the following quote from Tom Peters In Search of Excellence:
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Probably the most important management fundamental that is being ignored today is staying close to the customer to satisfy his needs and anticipate his wants. In too many companies, the customer has become a bloody nuisance whose unpredictable behavior damages carefully made strategic plans, whose activities mess up computer operations, and who stubbornly insists that purchased products should work.
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Convergence is real and it s only just begun. The move to a single-network fabric for the transport of multiple service types is underway and will happen. However, the imminent demise of the circuit switch is exaggerated. In the local market, these devices will be around for some time
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Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.
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