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to come. In the long-distance business, where packet transport over highbandwidth optical facilities simply makes sense, the displacement process will occur much faster. Furthermore, the convergence of companies continues apace as they jostle each other for the pole position in the services and solutions provisioning game. The functional migration from the edge of the network to the core is underway. A redesign of the network is in progress as intelligence migrates from the core to the edge. The closer network resources are to the customer, the more those resources can be customized to meet their dynamic demands. As long as resources are concentrated in the core, customers tend to be treated like commodities. In this age of service focus, that philosophy is deadly. A new regulatory environment is needed and will happen. Darwin was right: only the fittest members of a species survive, thus enabling hybrid vigor. Darwinian evolution is alive and well in the telecommunications business and only the fittest will survive. Fittest, of course, is a measure of the degree to which a company meets customer demand through the proper and judicious deployment of new technologies as a way to offer competitive advantage. Although there will always be a need for protection against predatory, anti-competitive behavior, an open marketplace with minimal regulation is wise and necessary. Contrived competition and protectionism are bad things and do nothing to prepare companies for a truly competitive environment. Thus, regulators will become guidance agencies, tasked with the responsibility to work themselves out of a job as the industry becomes more and more independent. The metro environment will become a central marketplace in the next three to five years. Metropolitan networking is undergoing a huge growth spurt in response to changing customer business models. Long-haul networks are largely complete and offer massive overcapacitization of bandwidth. In the metro space, however, bandwidth is in short supply and, where available, is inflexible. New technologies deployed by metrofocused companies such as Yipes! And Telseon will change the metro space and expand it as a viable and lucrative market for service providers and manufacturers alike. Globalization is real, painful, and necessary. According to a recent article in The Economist, globalization today is largely dependent upon falling telecommunications costs. As the costs of optical transmission, Internet and telephone connectivity, satellite deployment, switching centers, and semiconductors plummet, the degree to which these technologies can be used to weave a tighter and more cohesive global communications fabric becomes greater and greater. Low-cost communi-
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Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.
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cations means that emerging countries can play in the information services game for a comparatively small investment. Is there a downside to globalization Absolutely change is painful and must be monitored closely to eliminate abuses during the change process. More good than bad will take place, however, and because the process is inevitable, a prudent, informed acceptance is safer than ignorance and avoidance. So what is the message of this book There are several, really. First, telecommunications is the interstitial tissue, the systemic fabric that more and more weaves the world together. Second, it does so because it can. Yes, there s a downside to the homogenization that occurs with globalization (which is in turn accelerated by the proliferation of telecommunications technologies) and the potential for the loss of some degree of national identity. However, as I said a moment ago, a powerful upside outweighs the downside. I am writing this on the balcony of a small apartment in the pueblo of Majadahonda, just west of Madrid. When I lived near here 20 years ago, the road below me was not paved, and my brothers and I used to run with the bulls down this road during bullfight season. The stores were small, dark establishments that sold a few things, typically whatever they were able to get that day. Now I look out across the same street, now paved, and see a Gap, a Tony Roma s, a Toys R Us, a United Colors of Benetton, and a sign for Burger King somewhere down there around the corner. But about the time I start to get that deep-seated sense of loss, I look across the street, and there, sitting in a loosely cobbled together collection of ancient plastic chairs, are four old men playing cards, just like they did when I lived here. Above their heads is a satellite dish and sitting at the table adjacent to them are two college students with laptops, one of them accessing the Internet via a wireless modem and both drinking latt s. So, although things have changed here and in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, the important things have not. Technology has helped create opportunity, wealth, an end to poverty, and hope. And although it may be difficult to see the old culture buried beneath all the glitz of technological globalization, it s still there, and it doesn t take the Web to find it.
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Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.
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