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nections after a period of inactivity. This will reduce the perceived effectiveness and value of the service in the minds of customers. It s a wellknown fact that always-on broadband users generate more than ten times the traffic of a dial-up user the implication being services revenue and an upward pressure on capital expansion. Fourth, handsets and other mobile access devices such as PDAs must become more richly functional. They must support multiple access protocols so that they can connect via not only standard cellular protocols but Bluetooth and 802.11 as well. Most manufacturers already offer these devices; growth will continue. Finally, what are the so-called killer applications If truth be told, the demand in mobile environments is not really for a new killer app, but rather for new killer ways to access existing applications. These may include (and in some cases already do) Web access, IM, e-mail, collaborative gaming, location-based services, personalized event notification, content aggregation, and personal information portals. In 2004 alone, more than 600 million mobile phones were sold. Interestingly, 70 million of them had built-in cameras, adding some credence to the belief that the ability to transmit and receive digital photographs from one cell phone to another device is a desirable application. (Although I have yet to meet anyone who regularly transmits photographs from their cell phone.) Two-thirds of all cell phones shipped today have color screens, and multiple service providers have announced multimedia applications for their mobile users including downloadable games and music clips, as well as a wide variety of customizable ring tones. Don t believe that these are desirable applications In 2004, mobile games generated $1.1 billion in revenues, while downloadable ring tones generated an almost unbelievable $3.5 billion. Even so, a study performed recently by Bear Stearns-Booz Allen & Hamilton predicted that wireless data services are unlikely to exceed ten percent of carrier revenues by 2007. But here s a question for readers: Should they
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3G, billed as the ideal mobile data solution, has failed to live up to expectations or to satisfy the promises its developers made. Frankly, it has been a poorly positioned solution a technology in search of a problem to solve. Originally positioned as the facilitator of the wireless Internet, customers have come to realize that the wireless Internet today is largely
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Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.
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a dream. It is doomed to fail as long as it continues to be a deadly combination of immature, not-yet-ready-for-the-market technology, poorly established expectations, slow and spotty connections, useless device screens, and largely nonexistent content. Comparing the experiences of surfing the Web via a computer and surfing it with a cell phone is a laughable exercise there is no comparison. Even in Japan, where uptake of innovative services is always extremely high, the rollout of 3G services has, to a point, stalled. Reasons include service availability in urban areas (spotty at best), the physical dimensions of the handsets (they re heavy), the price of the handsets (three times that of the one it replaced), the cost of service (the average monthly invoice in Japan for subscribers climbed dramatically), and very short battery life. As a clerk in an electronics store in Tokyo told me, You don t need 3G to send e-mails, download data, or even watch movie clips. You can do all that with the other services so there is no reason to use 3G. Key to the success of broadband, obviously, is spectrum availability. The spectrum battles that are underway between broadcasters and telecom players create enormous problems that cannot be overcome without a shift in regulatory policy. Television has always been sacred territory in the United States and Canada, and has always enjoyed the rights of first refusal for newly available spectra. As a result, TV broadcasters have amassed huge bunkers of bandwidth. That they only use a relatively small percentage of what they hold appears to be irrelevant. It s high time federal regulators redistribute spectrum as appropriate to level the services playing field. Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink, is the mantra of would-be wireless providers. TV has historically controlled 15 percent of the most desirable spectrum (30 30,000 MHz) yet wireless television (i.e., antenna-based) serves only 11 million U.S. households. The rest are served by cable and satellite providers who don t use the most desirable spectrum to begin with. Cellular providers have half the spectrum allocated to them that TV has; yet, they must serve hundreds of millions of subscribers in that space. The ITFS spectrum that was set aside in the 1960s (see section on MMDS, which follows) for education purposes still sits largely unused; yet, Wi-Fi providers must pack 20 million users into half the spectrum available to ITFS users. The good news is that recent regulatory activity indicates that the FCC may be considering a gerrymandering of the available spectrum, so stay tuned no pun intended.
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Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.
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