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The fact is that the ILECs are under siege on multiple fronts. One of the critical questions that now comes up routinely in strategy discussions is this: Should the big three (Verizon, SBC, and Bellsouth) stop spending so much on capital outlay to build out their own networks and instead start spending their cash on the acquisition of preexisting assets Companies like WorldCom, Cingular, Nextel, and Sprint PCS are, by many measures, undervalued at the moment; and because the ILECs have a recurring revenue stream, they have relatively easy access to capital compared to some of their competitors. One of the biggest challenges they face is that they have very high fixed costs and very low variable costs which makes it difficult for them to make major adjustments in their cost base without drastic changes (like huge headcount reductions). The danger is that as they begin to lose access lines to competitors such as cable MSOs, wireless providers, and CLECs at what point do they lose critical mass and begin to collapse under the weight of their own infrastructure Furthermore, as ARPU levels decline without a closely tied reduction in costs, the hole gets deeper. Consider that between 1998 and 2002 alone Bellsouth, Verizon, and SBC spent $140 billion in CAPEX on their networks, a move that yielded less than one percent revenue growth. In 2003 they made combined profits of $20 billion on a collective market value of $240 billion. Clearly they want these numbers to increase. In 1998, ILEC CAPEX was 30 to 33 percent of revenues; today it is far lower, about 14 percent. What steps have they taken to remedy the ongoing revenue shortfall The first steps they took involved a direct attack on the FCC with a petition to reenter the long-distance market, referred to by regulators as Section 271 relief. Section 271 of the 1996 Telecommunications Act allows the remaining ILECs (Qwest, Verizon, SBC, and BellSouth) to enter the longdistance market if they can prove that they have sufficiently opened up their local markets to competition. As you know from your readings in the regulatory chapter, they have aggressively pursued this course of action; so, suffice it to say that the ILECs universally fought for long-distance relief in response to local telephony entry by their competitors and have in fact been granted large entry concessions. Verizon, for example, replaced Sprint as the third largest long-distance provider in terms of customer count. The originally stated reason for long-distance entry was incremental revenue, since the cost to an ILEC for in-region entry was near zero. However, while the ILECs doubled the number of long-distance customers they serve, the revenues from the long-distance lines of business they established declined 6 percent as the bandwidth glut and the magic of declining ARPUs took effect. Clearly, ILEC entry into long dis-
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Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.
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tance has bought them precious little if any margin relief as they watch their local services revenues decline. So what must they do There are a number of steps that service providers can take to shore up their falling revenue targets. They include acceleration of the circuit-to-packet migration, which facilitates convergence; marshalling a renewed focus on the importance of the metro marketplace; aggressive revamping of their overall network infrastructures; a much stronger focus on both element and network management; an aggressive examination of the services that customers actually want and a plan to deliver them cost effectively; and a strong focus on both enterprise and residence customer requirements.
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