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than 50 percent in the same period. And while capital spending in the United States showed an admirable 25 percent growth rate, average revenues grew only 25 percent, while profits dropped precipitously and return on equity faltered. Between 1996 and 2000, capital expenditures in telecommunications rose from $41 billion to $110 billion but return on capital fell 50 percent. Furthermore, since 1984, the domestic consumer price index is up 73 percent and local communications call volume is up 71 percent, but long-distance prices are down 35 percent not a good sign for service providers, particularly given the capital-intensive nature of telecomm infrastructure. Even the venerable PC market saw a downturn; for 2003, growth declined from an expected level of about 13 percent to slightly less than 10 percent. Amidst all this darkness there has been good news, however. While optical transport revenues declined precipitously during the postbubble disaster, the revenues from SONET and SDH (optical transport infrastructure) sales climbed. By the end of 2005 the optical metro marketplace, a strong market sector, is expected to roughly double, while the total market for IP-based VPN services will grow to approximately $14.7 billion by the beginning of 2006 because of the proliferation of mobile workers, improved mobile technology, security concerns, and changing work models.
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Technology Indicators
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Several technology sectors show promise and are recovering more rapidly than others. They are discussed in the following sections.
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Softswitch
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Softswitch technology is designed to support next generation networks that rely on packet-based voice, data, and video communications technologies and that can interface with a variety of transport technologies including copper, wireless, and fiber. One goal of the softswitch concept is to functionally separate network hardware from network software. In traditional circuit-switched networks, hardware and software are dependent on one another, resulting in what many believe to be an unnecessarily inextricable relationship. Circuit-switched networks rely on dedicated facilities and are designed primarily for delay-sensitive voice
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communications. The goal of softswitch is to bring about dissolution of this interdependent relationship where appropriate. In concert with the evolution of the overall network, the softswitch concept has evolved to address a variety of network payload types. More and more, telecommunications networks are utilizing IP as a fundamental protocol, particularly in the network backbone. This backbone is also making VoIP services viable as an alternative to circuit-switched voice. There is more to softswitch, however, than simply separating the functional components of the network. Another key goal is to create an open service-creation development environment so that application developers can create universal products that can be implemented across an entire network. Part of the evolution will include the development of call control models that will seamlessly support data, voice, and multimedia services. We will discuss more specific examples of this functional evolution in the last section of this report. The result of widespread softswitch deployment will be the creation of a switching model that does not have the same restrictions that plague circuit switches, such as intelligent network triggers, application invocation mechanisms and complex service logic. This functional distribution will result in faster and more-targeted feature development and delivery and significantly lower service delivery costs. Softswitches will be architecturally simpler, operationally efficient, and less expensive to operate and maintain. A number of corporations have now focused their efforts on the development of softswitch products. Both Lucent and Nortel announced softswitch products as early as 1999 in the form of the 7R/E (Lucent) and the Succession (Nortel). Today, they have been all but abandoned because the market simply wasn t ready to bridge the gap between the circuitswitched Bellheads and the IP bit-weenies, although both companies have now come roaring back into the fray with Succession (Nortel) and iMerge (Lucent). Today, however, the market is once again growing, and ferociously. Companies like Taqua Systems are beginning the process of reinvigorating the softswitch marketplace. A key target sector is the small rural telephone company. These companies are targets because they can take advantage of the incremental-deployment nature of the softswitch, and because they are one of the few segments that have money earmarked for capital growth. Softswitch was originally intended as a local-switch replacement technology to facilitate the circuit-to-packet migration. The economy, however, has been problematic, and progress has not been as aggressive as the sector would like. In truth, softswitches have been used to replace
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