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influence them. More than 25 percent of all handsets are contract manufactured and can therefore be influenced by Microsoft. And while Microsoft has succeeded in some cases, they have met with challenges in others. One barrier that Microsoft faces is that the existing economic mobile model leans heavily in favor of the large manufacturers. They produce millions of handsets, while contract manufacturers sell hundreds of thousands, resulting in devices that tend to be more expensive. Some analysts believe that Microsoft s attempted end-run will fail, but it s still too early to tell. Microsoft may be able to appeal to corporate clients if they craft a way to integrate mobile and desktop applications to create a seamless service continuum. The key point here is service: Technology, while important, is not the lead act in this play. Services, applications, solutions, and value represent the lead theme, and content is the principal cast of characters.
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The triad of content, carriage, and computing represents a strong weapon in the war against the widening cost-revenue gap. The existence of multiple service markets (enterprise, consumer) dictates that there are multiple judgments that define their value in each segment. For enterprise customers, network management and professional services rank well in the hierarchy because they provide a technology-to-services transition strategy. For residence customers, the main item identified is broadband access. Other so-called value-added services include video, music, games, simple wireless videoconferencing, and encryption. Note that these are all content-based services. On the other hand, value-added services (by the market s definition of value) include back-office integration, online payment and consolidated billing, content delivery (photos and video, primarily), and messaging (instant messaging and SMS). SMS, the GSM-equivalent of IM, is an enormously lucrative service offering: It is more than 1,000 times more lucrative in terms of dollars per transported bit than the nearest competitive service. Furthermore, the margins on traditional value-added services customarily, those provided through the magic of the SS7 signaling network and driven by database-intensive caller ID capability can be as high as 95 percent, one reason voice is still a lucrative product offering in spite of the fact that the price point for the service is declining. In this industry, we have often observed that the killer application for voice networks is data,
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referring to the revenue-rich nature of these services. They cost comparatively little to deliver, yet offer good revenue returns. That s why service providers count on them. So if data is the killer application for voice networks, what s the killer application for data networks The entire industry is scrambling to build IP networks, to add broadband access in any of a variety of forms, yet every economic study ever done shows that the revenue generated by the data transported over service provider networks accounts for a small fraction of their actual revenue as little as 5 percent according to some studies. The answer, not surprisingly, is voice in addition to a growing array of potentially lucrative data-dependent applications. What is interesting, however, is that as we stated earlier, the marketplace is not looking for the next great killer application what they are looking for is a killer new way to access existing, utilitarian applications such as voice, e-mail, instant messaging/short messaging, Web access, content delivery, security (hence the success of wireless VPNs), caching, and storage. Furthermore, instant messaging is not an application targeted exclusively at teens and preteens: Industry reports indicate that nearly 100 million enterprise employees rely on some form of IM for intracorporate communications, and many corporations have seen a measurable decline in e-mail volume as a result of growing IM usage. The phenomenon is decidedly human: Most employees, upon receipt of an e-mail message, decide whether they must respond immediately or can delay the response until later. IM users, on the other hand, psychologically feel an obligation to respond immediately to the appearance of an instant message as if the sender knows they are in their cubicle. The result of this is that information flows more quickly, resulting in an acceleration of decision making. There is a downside, however: IM users are scattered across a handful of providers including AOL, Microsoft, and Yahoo! Interoperability among these providers has always been a problem, but a few companies, including Verisign, are stepping up to the challenge of creating an IM interoperability gateway and putting it into service.
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The added function of managing value-added services is a critical differentiator: Consider that AT&T s professional services business is now a $4 billion product line. Consider also that the true professional services firms (Deloitte, for example) are in enormous demand by telecom industry players to help them navigate their way through the stormy waters
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