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Right versus Might
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China, and Taiwan as successful examples of different market models:
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Over the past fifty years, economic science has explained why, and the conditions under which, markets work well and when they do not.
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So what s the problem The IMF presents as received doctrine propositions and policy recommendations for which there is not widespread agreement :
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For the believers in free and unfettered markets, capital market liberalization was obviously desirable; one didn t need evidence that it promoted growth.
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So the IMF enters battle with a single theory, instead of expecting the unexpected and drawing on whatever theories and methods suit the situation at hand. And Stiglitz sounds like Kuhn when he adds:
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One of the important distinctions between ideology and science is that science recognizes the limitations of what one knows. There is always uncertainty.
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Above all, the believers think that free and unfettered markets are morally right and good for mankind. Pure markets are right to succeed: but might they succeed According to Stiglitz, no. Their record of success is dismal. Stiglitz gives the experience of Russia compared to that of China as a major illustration of his point. In the 1990s, Russia obeyed the IMF. China did not. The result Russia collapsed while China boomed.
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Russia s transition has entailed one of the largest increases in poverty in history in such a short span of time (outside of war or famine). . . . In the meanwhile, China unleashed a process of creative destruction: of eliminating the old economy by creating a new one.
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Our old friend Schumpeter again.
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248 A P P E N D I X
A key to China s success was a new form of ownership, based on the old:
Township and village public enterprises were central in the early years of transition. IMF ideology said that because these were public enterprises, they could not have succeeded.
Stiglitz notes that building on what works sounds slow, but it ends up being faster in the end. In an ultimate irony, gradual policies succeeded in making deeper reforms more rapidly. In Russia the reforms went fast, whereas in China they went slowly. And yet
China s stock market is larger than Russia s. Much of Russia s agriculture today is managed little differently than it was a decade ago, while China managed the transition to the individual responsibility system in less than four years.
Stiglitz goes on to cite other successful examples of building on the past that depart from IMF orthodoxy, in the Czech Republic and Poland. To save the situation, Stiglitz would start by forcing the IMF to return to its original mission. To do that, you would have to change its governing board. Right now, industrial countries dominate. Stiglitz wants more seats for countries that are on the receiving end of IMF policies. And he wants transparency in all decisions, so that economists and others from all over the world can voice their opinion before it s too late. He also wants an independent think tank, free from IMF influence, to give the receiving nations advice. These suggestions are fine. But will greater democracy and transparency lead to the right decisions The march of science says yes: Truth wins out in the end. Yet the art of what works eludes committees. The more voices there are, the less there is unity of command. Everything Stiglitz wants will help, but still there comes the moment when Desh s workers strike out on their own, or China s village industries succeed. No one predicted it. A worldwide committee can t react in time to make a difference. Only a strategist can, armed with expert intuition.
Right versus Might
Easterly and Stiglitz bring what works to high-level policy. That s grand strategy; to win battles, you also need strategists on the ground. Thousands of professionals make up the army of international development assistance. Right now they operate according to one or more of the leading schools of strategy. They need instead the art of what works, so that wherever they are, whatever happens, they can seek out and build on success.14 Like Zwerling and GRAD. Like Keri S., our synthesist in strategy consulting. Like the multitude of successful examples we saw in our business cases. You need artists of what works in the poor countries themselves like Quader of Desh but you also need them in the international development agencies. Easterly opens his book with a comment on the elusive quest for growth that his entire profession pursues:
The theme of the quest is ancient. In many versions, it is the search for a precious object with magical properties: the Golden Fleece, the Holy Grail, the Elixir of Life. . . . Like the ancient questors, we economists have tried to find the precious object, the key that would enable the poor tropics to become rich. We thought we had found the elixir many different times. . . . None has delivered as promised.
But don t give up. There is no one precious object, one magic formula. There are many, one for each situation. You find them by coup d oeil.
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